6/4/19 Free horse racing tips: Sires Produce Stakes

Distance	1400m
Grade	Group 1
Track Rating	Soft 7
Prizemoney	$1,000,000
Class	2.y.o - Set Weights
2018 winner	El Dorado Dreaming

The Sires Produce is the second leg of the two-year-old triple crown, wedged between the Golden Slipper (1200m) and the Champagne Stakes (1600m). 

The Sires field has traditionally consisted of Slipper runners who are looking to step out beyond the 1200m. 

Last year's winner, El Dorado Dreaming, came from a Newcastle maiden to claim the $1M prize, whilst Pierro (2012) was the last runner to complete the triple crown. 

The key to this year's edition is the racing surface and whether there will be any bias present. 

Before betting in this race, punters should watch the first five races to assess the best going.

 

 Randwick Track Traits

For the latest insight into how the Randwick track is expected to play, read our race preview of the Chairman's Quality here.

 

 Racing Market Movers

Godolphin's Microphone, who is coming off a second in the Golden Slipper, has been well backed from $7 into $5. 

Another Slipper runner, Loving Gabby (4th), has been the best backed runner from $7 to $4.80. 

The only notable drifter has been Castelvecchio, who has drifted from $7 to $9. 

 

 Key Runners

#1 Castelvecchio $7 > $9

Has been freshened and targeted at this race.

His first two wins were ultra-impressive, when he came from last to fly over the top on both occasions. 

The Skyline run suggested he's screaming out for the 1400m and if he can stay in touch with the leaders, he'll be storming home late.  

 

#2 Microphone $7 > $5

Can't knock him on his five runs to date and his second in the Slipper was very good. 

Now at his sixth run, it's hard to see him show further improvement. 

Looks a risk stepping up to the 1400m. No thanks!

 

#5 Bellevue Hill $7

Trainer Gai Waterhouse knows a thing or two about winning the Sires Produce, having claimed seven of the last 18 events. 

This runner is proven with a win at 1400m and has been set for the final two legs of the triple crown. 

Will go forward and control the speed, with the only worry being how the track will play. 

If the rails are off, which is likely by race six, his task will be made difficult.

If on-pace runners are suited, he looks a good thing. 

 

#10 Kiamichi $11

Dominated the Golden Slipper from the front. 

Has drawn well in barrier one and will race on-pace, but is unlikely to lead now stepping out to the 1400m for the first time. 

It would surprise to see further improvement from her Slipper run, but at the $11 he looks well over the odds. 

A 'Royal Blue' trifecta! @LaneDamian and Kiamichi take out the $3.5million Golden Slipper for @Godolphin. ?????? pic.twitter.com/0LT24y5MUD

— Racing.com (@Racing) March 23, 2019

 

#11 Probabeel $10

Got well out of her ground in the Magic Knight and ran on well. 

The 1400m suits, but from the wide draw she'll get back beyond mid-field again and she doesn't possess the sprint of her rivals. 

Next... 

 

#12 Loving Gaby $7 > $4.80

It would take a brave punter to tell you this filly isn't a winning chance. 

She's been without luck at her last two starts and with even luck, could have easily placed in both the Blue Diamond Stakes and Golden Slipper.

That said, she is at rock-bottom odds for a horse that looks a real query at 1400m. 

Is the stable pushing her too far in pursuit of that elusive Group One? 

 

#13 Tenley $10

Didn't go a yard in the Slipper, however her lead up runs suggest she will relish the 1400m. 

Gets the soft draw and gun jockey Kerrin McEvoy to steer. 

Will pay to forgive and is well over the odds! 

 

#14 Cyrstal Falls $20

Came from beyond mid-field to run second in the Magic Knight, behind Kiamichi.

In that run, she settled back on the rails in the inferior going. Once she found better ground however, she flew home to close the gap on the leader, finishing 1.3 lengths away from the prize. 

The barrier draw in 13 isn't all that bad and she gets blinkers on for the first time. 

Expect her to follow the speed across to sit mid-field, three-wide and in the running line. 

If the rail chops out and there is any bias to back-markers, she'll be very hard to beat.

Looks well over the odds and goes on top!   

 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st Cyrstal Falls

2^nd Castelvecchio

3^rd Bellevue Hill

4^th Kiamichi 

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