Doomben Cup 2024 Horse Racing Tips 25/5/24

We're deep into the carnival season, just four weeks from the coveted Stradbroke Handicap, and the big stables are flocking to Queensland to compete.

This weekend's highlight is the Doomben Cup, with Huetor aiming to make history as the first three-time winner of the event.

Annabel Neasham is mounting a strong challenge herself with four contenders all trying to hand her a third success in the race:

• Numerian, fresh from a significant Hollindale Stakes win
• Fawkner Park, who has impressively finished his last two starts at Albury and Wagga
• Bois D’Argent and
• Naval College.

As of Thursday the track condition is rated Soft 6, but with the forecast of clear skies it should improve in rating.

With sixteen runners nominated, the barrier draw has produced both winners and losers.

Queensland analyst John Steinmetz has scrutinized this competitive race and finds himself unconvinced by the favourite.

 

 

Doomben Cup Tips & Best Bets from John Steinmetz

Speed Map

There appears very little tempo in this years events and horses will look to settle into a rhythm early and fight it out down the tight Doomben straight.

New Endeavour (14) will get a soft lead, only having Serpentine (6) battling him up top.

While beneficial at other tracks, barriers 1-3 at Doomben can be death coffins.

Runners from inside draws struggle to push forward and often end up in the back half of the field.

Naval College (10), Numerian (1), Bois D’Argent (11), Vow and Declare (5) and Kind Words (16) all look to get soft runs just off the pace or midfield.

They will be the first runners to straighten and let down behind the leaders.

Young Werther (7), Detonator Jack (4), Hezashocka (13), El Bodegon (8) and Amokura (15) will settle in the next group.

Look for Kovalica (3), Fawkner Park (12) and Huetor (2) to all drift back and leave their runs to the end.

 

Kovalica wins the QLD Derby as a 3YO 

 

The Favourite

Kovalica is currently the favourite at $3.60, followed by Detonator Jack at $5, Huetor at $7.50, and Numerian at $8.50, all in single figures.

While Kovalica has disappointed bettors in several races, it's noteworthy that he has won 5 out of 6 starts as the favourite.

Nevertheless, at these odds, I'm hesitant to back him.

In a field of 16 horses over 2000m, it's crucial to seek value.

Moreover, his form lines simply don't stack up against the others in the field.

 

Tips

I’m going out on a limb here, I think New Endeavour (14) has untapped potential.

Gai Waterhouse doesn’t normally go for a 7 day back up for her horses unless she’s confident of a strong run.

If you don’t believe me, watch his last start.

The final 600m was the strongest I’ve seen from him, and he is peaking in fitness now/

If he’s going to win a Group 1, it’s this.

Craig Williams being booked to ride is a positive sign also.

Since being brought over to Australia, he has gone from an 11^th of 14, to a second of 15 by 0.1L in a group 3.

He is yet to run a bad race third up and is my value bet for this one.

I think we will see his first Australian win on Saturday

 

Watch the last start second from New Endeavour

 

Next I’ve gone with Fawkner Park.

If I’m honest, I was never keen on this gelding until that dominant win at Wagga.

To come from stone cold last at the 800m to win by almost a length is something incredible.

With two listed wins to his name, he’s primed for the step up in grade and has every right to take this one out.

Tyler Schiller being booked is a good sign too, as they’ve been together for both cup wins.

 

I've found some value in the old soul Vow and Declare.

An already proven group 1 winner, Vow and Declare is coming off another 8 week let up and off a strong 4^th in a tough Australian Cup.

On that occasion he finished just behind the likes of Cascadian, Pride of Jenni and Atishu.

This gelding has the strongest formlines coming into this race, however the only worry might be this could be too short for him as known 2400m+ performer.

A nice each-way prospect.

 

Finally, I couldn’t leave out the already two time Doomben Cup winner, Huetor.

This is his favourite distance, he did have to drop back for the Hollindale run, but this is right back to his best.

Undefeated at both this track and this race, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take it out for the third time.

He will be banking on a bit of rain, but he should trail nicely off the speed and will make a strong push to get into the money.

 

So, that leaves me with:

1^st New Endeavour

2^nd Fawkner Park

3^rd Vow and Declare

4^th Huetor

 

Tip: New Endeavour 

 

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