Betting on wet Randwick tracks

A wet track at Randwick is often met with caution by punters. It wasn't too long ago when you couldn't be sure where the winners would come from on anything worse than a Good 4 at Sydney's racing headquarters. There was a genuine lack of consistency across the track down the home straight which often saw punters missing out with the best horse in the race. Despite these challenges there's enough evidence to suggest that a wet Randwick track is more consistent than most punters have given it credit for. We've found two key traits that have proven to hold true in these conditions, and knowing them can give you a significant advantage over the bookies.

Rails can get favours on the turn

Hard against the inside rail was perceived to be a death wish for a long time after Randwick was resurfaced several years ago. That reputation stuck and since then most jockeys have started to habitually fan wide to avoid the perceived bog on the inside as they corner into the home straight. The win from La Bella Diosa last Saturday in the Surround Stakes highlighted to punters once again that the going near the inside may not be that bad, at least from the turn to about the 300m mark.

Let's start with the facts. The track was a Heavy 9 on Saturday and the rail was in its True position for the entire circuit. With the traditional fanning occuring as they turned into the straight, the rail corridor became a free passage for the the Kiwi filly who looked to be travelling well up to that point. She took the short cut and cornered hard against the rail and got instantly promoted towards the front of the field.

 

Source: Racing NSW

Changes half-way down the home straight

The footage shows that the New Zealand filly is doing well after straigtening, much better than her nearest competitiors, Omei Sword and Global Glamour, up to the 300m. From that point there's a noticable slowing in her momentum with clear surface water kicking up underneath her hooves. Between the 300m and the winning post Collett starts to steer her towards the middle of the track and finishes a good 4 metres out from the rail as she passes the post.

The evidence suggest that runners aren't penalised on the home turn near the rails, at least not enough to impact their competiveness up to the 300m mark. At that point, when the going clearly gets tougher, there's a winning trend for runners that shift towards the middle of the track, about 3 to 6 metres away from the true rail position.

The 2015 Sydney Cup was run on a Soft 7 and was drying, having started as a Heavy 8 in earlier races that day. The rail was out 6m from the mile to the winning post. Who Shot Thebarman burst into the lead at the 200m hard against the rail and looked all over the winner. Jim Cassidy, who was riding Grand Marshal, looks to be getting to a comfortable second about five deep which is about 10 metres out from the rail in its true position, but looks like he will run short of a victory at the 150m mark. Flindell's commentary supported this view as his tones convinced the listener that Who Shot Thebarman was all but a certainty of winning the race.

It's not until Cassidy makes the calculated decision to steer Grand Marshal in towards the rail, which was 6 metres out from true, does he start to make winning strides towards victory.

 

Source: Youtube

The 2014 Doncaster Mile was run on a Heavy 9 with the rail in its true position, identical to last Saturday's Surrounds Stakes conditions. Sacred Choice, the eventual winner, is blocked for a run on the turn near the rails, but manages to find space and gets to the front. At the 300m mark, about 4m out from the rail, she seems to improve further as she shifts towards the middle of the track.

 

Source: Youtube

Consistent with the other two examples given above, taking the rails on the turn and then shifting towards the centre, about 4 to 6 metres out from true at around the 300m mark, has proven to be a winning formula at Randwick

Form Analysis take-aways

There's no hard and fast rule where punters can take advantage of these noted characteristics relating to wet tracks at Randwick but there are definitely considerations that punters can make when assessing the form.

Speed maps

Typically backmarkers who jump from inside barriers can have their chances discounted at some tracks. For example Caulfield is notorious for a lack of fanning on the turn which creates challenges for horses close to the rails at the back of the field. We question the need for discounting in wet conditions at Randwick in these circumstances. There's no doubt backmarkers on the rails have to rely on an element of luck, but it's clearly offset against the opportunity given to runners to save ground.

Jockeys

Experienced jockeys are better poised to take advantage of these opportunities with the wet Randwick track. I spoke with Jimmy "The Pumper" Cassidy at a function recently and asked him how he came to decide that he would be better off taking the longer diagonal run towards the rail on Grand Marshal in the 2015 Sydney Cup rather than maintaining a straight line and he responded with - "instinct". That's something the younger hoops won't achieve overnight.

Learn more about betting strategy for horse racing and punting systems here.

Mike Steward