Like any activitiy in life, horse racing results are made up of variables with
logical inter-relationships. The quest for many punters is to identify the form
variables and their interdependenies which consistently highlight winning runners.
The right formula, applied to a specific set of races that finds enough winners
at the right odds to drive profits, is the dream of every punter who sets out
to establish their own betting system.
Odds Analysis
Betting systems aren't all about form analysis though. Punters develop betting
systems that rely on market intelligence to drive their bets. Rather than looking
for patterns amongst horse form variables they perform real-time analysis on
price fluctuations and compare movements in an attempt to identify when the
market is on to a good thing. Then they try to catch it before the price drops
too far.
Value finders
The more complex betting systems go beyond identifying likely winners in a
race. Their quest is to assign a probability to each runner which represents
its chance of winning. The probabilities of each runner together forms their
own betting market which they then compare bookmaker markets.
By quantifying a horse's chances of winning they're asking if the race was
run 100 times under the same conditions, how many races would each runner win?
Each horse's probability (chance out of 100) represents its odds and together
forms their own betting market. As an example, if they determine a runner has
a chance of winning 10 races out of 100 then they are a 10% chance of winning
and their true odds are therefore $11. If the market is offering $20 for that
same horse, then the value punter will surely back it at that price.
On the other hand they may determine that a horse will win 33% of the time
which sets its true odds at $4. If the market is offering $2.50, it doesn't
present an opportunity for him in that race, despite the fact that it is a good
chance of winning.
Market Makers
When you've mastered the art of finding value you're tilting the odds in your
favour. But that creates another issue - getting your bets on. To address this
challenge some punters have taken their systems approach even further so that
they're getting on every time by controlling the market to a point where they
can't lose.
Betting Systems
Read through the many articles that we have published about betting systems
including:
- Form variable systems;
- Market fluctuations
- Value systems
- Market makers; and more.
Each article has been compiled from extensive research and most are based on
actual interviews with professional punters who have shared their secrets and
valuable insights about their betting systems.
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Thu, 07 July 2016 01:29 AM
Social racing punters who set-out to develop and maintain a winning betting
system face a common challenge. They struggle to produce and maintain the quality
data which is necessary to achieve their goal. We've simplified the complex .....
Fri, 24 June 2016 01:29 AM
With the Winter Carnival slowly drawing to a close, many punters will contemplate
retiring the form guide and speed maps until the smell of Spring enters their
nostrils in a few months time. But while many punters are taking a holiday.....
Thu, 03 September 2015 01:29 AM
Most punters use market movers to get an insight into which horses the smart
punters are backing. They are more likely to follow the shortening price rather
than back against it. We spoke to Simon this week, a part-time.....
Thu, 27 August 2015 01:29 AM
Last week we provided punters with a very simple but effective staking plan.
The tool was designed to provide time-poor social punters with a straight-forward
method to drive the size of their bets. Keeping the theme of easy-to-use be.....
Thu, 18 June 2015 01:29 AM
I heard some sound punting advice this week from our newest addition to the
team, Michael Gannon. Like a company competing in its industry, a punter has
to have a specific capability that gives them the edge over the market. If it
.....
Thu, 22 January 2015 01:29 AM
Ever wonder where serious professional punters with very large betting turnovers
go to punt? Bookmakers? Betting exchanges? The answer is TABs. I caught up with
a popular broker in the wagering industry who works with some of Australi.....
Fri, 05 December 2014 01:29 AM
The GTO team was lucky to catch-up with a professional punter on a recent trip
to Melbourne who we will call Matt in this article. Matt is a fairly humble
bloke. Not a 'Big Noter' and very open about how he makes money from betting .....
Thu, 30 October 2014 01:29 AM
During a recent interview we were fortunate enough to convince the interviewee
to allow us to publish some insights into his horse racing system that he has
used with success now for 15 years. Part of the deal was that we did not disc.....
Thu, 10 July 2014 01:29 AM
After scanning through the Horse
Racing Tipster Leader Board recently we were amazed to see the sizeable
profits being made by punters and media tipsters from their place tips. Place
betting is often overlooked by punters due to it.....
Wed, 25 June 2014 01:29 AM
Last week we spoke with Trent from HitTheLine, one of the
talented team of form analysts there focusing on Harness and
Horse Racing. Trent's key focus at HitTheLine is
harness racing while his business partner Andrew specialises in.....
Mon, 10 March 2014 01:29 AM
We have spoken many times about value punters and their ability to assess each
horse's chance of winning in a race to assist their efforts to identify bookmakers
who offer prices greater than a horse's real chance of winning. Or if th.....
Tue, 18 February 2014 01:29 AM
If you flip a coin 1,000 times the odds say you
will get 500 heads and 500 tales. Although it may not work out exactly as an
equal score for each side of the coin, the difference will not be statistically
significant. I.....
