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Horse Racing Strategy - Betting Systems

Like any activitiy in life, horse racing results are made up of variables with logical inter-relationships. The quest for many punters is to identify the form variables and their interdependenies which consistently highlight winning runners. The right formula, applied to a specific set of races that finds enough winners at the right odds to drive profits, is the dream of every punter who sets out to establish their own betting system.

Betting-Odds

Odds Analysis

Betting systems aren't all about form analysis though. Punters develop betting systems that rely on market intelligence to drive their bets. Rather than looking for patterns amongst horse form variables they perform real-time analysis on price fluctuations and compare movements in an attempt to identify when the market is on to a good thing. Then they try to catch it before the price drops too far.

Value finders

The more complex betting systems go beyond identifying likely winners in a race. Their quest is to assign a probability to each runner which represents its chance of winning. The probabilities of each runner together forms their own betting market which they then compare bookmaker markets.

By quantifying a horse's chances of winning they're asking if the race was run 100 times under the same conditions, how many races would each runner win? Each horse's probability (chance out of 100) represents its odds and together forms their own betting market. As an example, if they determine a runner has a chance of winning 10 races out of 100 then they are a 10% chance of winning and their true odds are therefore $11. If the market is offering $20 for that same horse, then the value punter will surely back it at that price.

On the other hand they may determine that a horse will win 33% of the time which sets its true odds at $4. If the market is offering $2.50, it doesn't present an opportunity for him in that race, despite the fact that it is a good chance of winning.

Market Makers

When you've mastered the art of finding value you're tilting the odds in your favour. But that creates another issue - getting your bets on. To address this challenge some punters have taken their systems approach even further so that they're getting on every time by controlling the market to a point where they can't lose.

 

Betting Systems

Read through the many articles that we have published about betting systems including:

  • Form variable systems;
  • Market fluctuations
  • Value systems
  • Market makers; and more.

Each article has been compiled from extensive research and most are based on actual interviews with professional punters who have shared their secrets and valuable insights about their betting systems.


Latest News

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Betting System: Simplifying winning patterns

Thu, 07 July 2016 01:29 AM

Social racing punters who set-out to develop and maintain a winning betting system face a common challenge. They struggle to produce and maintain the quality data which is necessary to achieve their goal. We've simplified the complex .....




Why betting on lower class races makes sense

Fri, 24 June 2016 01:29 AM

With the Winter Carnival slowly drawing to a close, many punters will contemplate retiring the form guide and speed maps until the smell of Spring enters their nostrils in a few months time. But while many punters are taking a holiday.....




Making the most of Market Movers on the punt

Thu, 03 September 2015 01:29 AM

  Most punters use market movers to get an insight into which horses the smart punters are backing. They are more likely to follow the shortening price rather than back against it. We spoke to Simon this week, a part-time.....




3 common mistakes that punters make

Thu, 27 August 2015 01:29 AM

Last week we provided punters with a very simple but effective staking plan. The tool was designed to provide time-poor social punters with a straight-forward method to drive the size of their bets. Keeping the theme of easy-to-use be.....




Betting Strategy a must for punters

Thu, 18 June 2015 01:29 AM

I heard some sound punting advice this week from our newest addition to the team, Michael Gannon. Like a company competing in its industry, a punter has to have a specific capability that gives them the edge over the market. If it .....




TAB is the home to big smart bets

Thu, 22 January 2015 01:29 AM

Ever wonder where serious professional punters with very large betting turnovers go to punt? Bookmakers? Betting exchanges? The answer is TABs. I caught up with a popular broker in the wagering industry who works with some of Australi.....




Betting System reveals trends to profit by

Fri, 05 December 2014 01:29 AM

The GTO team was lucky to catch-up with a professional punter on a recent trip to Melbourne who we will call Matt in this article. Matt is a fairly humble bloke. Not a 'Big Noter' and very open about how he makes money from betting .....




Horse Racing System - Form Rater

Thu, 30 October 2014 01:29 AM

During a recent interview we were fortunate enough to convince the interviewee to allow us to publish some insights into his horse racing system that he has used with success now for 15 years. Part of the deal was that we did not disc.....




Place Betting - 5 reasons why it makes sense

Thu, 10 July 2014 01:29 AM

After scanning through the Horse Racing Tipster Leader Board recently we were amazed to see the sizeable profits being made by punters and media tipsters from their place tips. Place betting is often overlooked by punters due to it.....




Betting success makes hours of homework worthwhile

Wed, 25 June 2014 01:29 AM

Last week we spoke with Trent from HitTheLine, one of the talented team of form analysts there focusing on Harness and Horse Racing. Trent's key focus at HitTheLine is harness racing while his business partner Andrew specialises in.....




No time to set a betting market? Look for value indicators

Mon, 10 March 2014 01:29 AM

We have spoken many times about value punters and their ability to assess each horse's chance of winning in a race to assist their efforts to identify bookmakers who offer prices greater than a horse's real chance of winning. Or if th.....




What are the odds? The Key to Value Betting

Tue, 18 February 2014 01:29 AM

If you flip a coin 1,000 times the odds say you will get 500 heads and 500 tales. Although it may not work out exactly as an equal score for each side of the coin, the difference will not be statistically significant. I.....




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