Like any activitiy in life, horse racing results are made up of variables with logical inter-relationships. The quest for many punters is to identify the form variables and their interdependenies which consistently highlight winning runners. The right formula, applied to a specific set of races that finds enough winners at the right odds to drive profits, is the dream of every punter who sets out to establish their own betting system.
Odds Analysis
Betting systems aren't all about form analysis though. Punters develop betting systems that rely on market intelligence to drive their bets. Rather than looking for patterns amongst horse form variables they perform real-time analysis on price fluctuations and compare movements in an attempt to identify when the market is on to a good thing. Then they try to catch it before the price drops too far.
Value finders
The more complex betting systems go beyond identifying likely winners in a race. Their quest is to assign a probability to each runner which represents its chance of winning. The probabilities of each runner together forms their own betting market which they then compare bookmaker markets.
By quantifying a horse's chances of winning they're asking if the race was run 100 times under the same conditions, how many races would each runner win? Each horse's probability (chance out of 100) represents its odds and together forms their own betting market. As an example, if they determine a runner has a chance of winning 10 races out of 100 then they are a 10% chance of winning and their true odds are therefore $11. If the market is offering $20 for that same horse, then the value punter will surely back it at that price.
On the other hand they may determine that a horse will win 33% of the time which sets its true odds at $4. If the market is offering $2.50, it doesn't present an opportunity for him in that race, despite the fact that it is a good chance of winning.
Market Makers
When you've mastered the art of finding value you're tilting the odds in your favour. But that creates another issue - getting your bets on. To address this challenge some punters have taken their systems approach even further so that they're getting on every time by controlling the market to a point where they can't lose.
Betting Systems
Read through the many articles that we have published about betting systems including:
Form variable systems;
Market fluctuations
Value systems
Market makers; and more.
Each article has been compiled from extensive research and most are based on actual interviews with professional punters who have shared their secrets and valuable insights about their betting systems.