The Eagle Farm surface is currently rated a Good 4 and last week’s meeting saw most winners come from off-the-pace.
The rail is out 2 metres the entire circuit, which shouldn't make any difference to those well back in the run.
Eagle Farm Race 5 - Moreton Cup 1200m (G2)
Recent Group 3 winner Splintex (1) is likely to box seat or lead from the rails draw and get the ideal run.
Wisdom Of Water (8) will have an early peep at the lead, or sit at the flanks of the favourite.
Look for Special Reward (5) to also make a play for the front. given he likes to race handy.
Of the backmarkers, Varda (2) will go back again and rely on her powerful finish, whilst Scallopini (3) should settle into a midfield trail. Expect The Astrologist (9) to ease back from the wide alley.
Splintex ($2.70) is the favourite across all markets, given he finished behind Group 1 winner Eduardo at two of his past three runs.
He did have every chance behind Ed in the Doomben 10,000 after having the run of the race box seating, however he finished 1.55 lengths off the gun sprinter.
The notable form-line from this race is Vega One, who went on to win the Group 1 Kingsford Smith.
The son of Snitzel is a very good chance given he will race on-the-pace.
I am leaning towards first-up specialist Scallopini (3), who flies fresh (7:4-0-1).
He's a $12 quote at the moment, mainly due to his best runs being at Listed level.
Last prep when first-up, the O'Dea/Hoysted trained gelding ran 6 lengths eighth behind Jonker.
He finished hard from the back and whilst he was a fair way from the winner, Jonker did run record time of 1.07.83 which is low flying for 1200m.
This bloke has only missed a place once at Eagle Farm (9:3-3-2), and the big track definitely suits.
Varda was exceptional when winning last start after storming home from last. The only question is whether she can produce that kind of performance over 1200m.
Splintex will get every chance and will be endeavouring to hold off all challengers late.
Stampe is a good chance to improve dramatically if he gets the right run in transit.
Eagle Farm Race 8 - Queensland Oaks 2200m (G1)
Slendiferous (2) will take up the running from the good gate and you can expect Easifar (10) to carve across from out wide and sit outside that filly.
Bargain (4) will track the speed and get a good run behind the leaders, alongside Grace And Harmony.
Media Award (5) will go back again and the Waller trained former Kiwi, Charms Star, will also race towards the rear.
Bargain ($4.80) ran another good placing in The Roses after dropping back in distance.
She was terrific two starts back in the ATC Oaks, when third behind Hungry Heart at 2400m.
She gets her chance back up to 2200m, though my concern is she hasn't been able to produce a win at the highest level.
You can guarantee she will be in the placings, it's just a question of which position.
Duais ran an excellent second placing in the ATC Oaks, which looks a great guide here.
She chased hard in that clash, proving she can mix it with the best.
She won the Group 3 Adrian Knox over 2000m the run prior and beat Bargain at both of those runs.
Star jockey Hugh Bowman's skills will be on show, as he will need to find a good trailing position midfield in the run from the wide gate.
Hawkesbury trainer Edward Cummings has been waiting for the right opportunity and this is his best chance at winning a Group 1 to date.
Bargain has the form on the board and will be the one they have to gun down late.
Only Words was a solid winner of The Roses and should be able to handle the rise in distance.
Media Award 's form has been faultless, winning her past three including the SA Oaks.
The daughter of Shamus Award is having her first run above 2000m, so it should be interesting to see how she finishes off.
Rick Morris is an experienced racing analyst, with a sharp eye for finding a winner. Residing in Melbourne, Rick keeps a close eye on the Victorian racing scene as well as metropolitan Queensland racing. He's also big AFL fan, having spent close to 20 years commentating the NAB League under 19's competition.
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