27/02/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

We went two from two again last week, with two highly rated horses at Caulfield falling victim to the false favourite tag.

Perfect Jewel was as short as $2.05 in early markets when we identified her as one to avoid, before she caught a severe case of "the blows" (jumped at $3.60) and came up short.

We also picked out Blue Diamond Stakes favourite Enthaar as an excellent risk, before the hot-pot found the 1200m distance too far and was well beaten after working early.

This week we again pot two Group 1 favourites and give reasoning why they are both currently under the odds.

 

Flemington Race 7 #2 Tagaloa $3.90

Happy to be against the Australian Guineas favourite, who I believe had his “birthday” last start when enjoying a perfect run close-to-speed throughout.

He is also less effective third-up (2:0-1-0) and I expect his performances to taper off now, as the preparation gets longer.

This field has good depth, with potential star Ole Kirk and rising talent Zou Dancer both engaged.

There also looks to be strong pressure early, which will make Tagaloa work extra hard if they again attempt to race in a forward position.

He is a big chance of being forced to race wide early.

The current price looks very skinny and I expect this runner to drift and jump at $4+. Lay.

 

Randwick Race 6 #6 Verry Elleegant $2.60

Going to take on Verry Elleegant again here in the hot Group 1 field, and believe she is well under the odds at the current $2.60.

She was heavily backed first-up when returning to her old habit of over-racing throughout. If she does that again here, expect her to be no chance against this quality.

This field simply won’t allow for any mistakes and she faces a tricky speed map if they crawl, which is likely to cause her to over-race.

J Mac will likely have no choice but to let her roll if they drop anchor, and a “stop-start” race is not ideal for this mare's poor manners.

I would much prefer her deeper into the preparation and over more ground. Avoid.