1/2/20 Caulfield Tips & best bets: Manfred Stakes Preview

This year's edition of the Manfred Stakes is certainly a battle of the boys, with a plethora of high value Stallion prospects engaged.

I expect a few to be very forward for this first-up assignment, given any poor performances get marked down in the Stallion market. 

I am with one who looks as tough as they come and did start as Caulfield Guineas favourite last Spring, before a torrid yet brave run. 

 Caulfield Track Traits

The Caulfield surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 10m the entire circuit.

Fine conditions are predicted for the remainder of the week in Melbourne, with possible storms on Saturday.

With the rail out a massive 10m, there will be a distinct advantage to those horses who have drawn the inside and can race on or close to speed. 

As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias. 

 Racing Market Movers

Race favourite Dalasan has been very well supported in early betting and is now into $2.50 from $2.70 openers. 

All other runners remain steady. 

 Key Runners

#1 Super Seth $4.20

Boom colt who pulled out a massive run when coming from an impossible position to win the Caulfield Guineas last preparation.

He returns with his stallion career at Waikato Stud confirmed, and they will be keen to maintain a pristine record here to protect his stud value. 

Expect the stable to have him very forward and with an impeccable first-up record (2:2-0-0), he will go very close. Yes.  

#2 Dalasan $2.70 > $2.50

Is as tough as teak and fought hard all the way to the line at Flemington, to win the Carbine Club last preparation. 

He goes very well first-up (2:2-0-0) and the stable have indicated he is ready to fire for this race.

Look for him to lob in the box seat from an ideal draw in gate 3 and from there, he'll prove very hard to beat.

Very keen and must go on top. 

#3 Groundswell $5.50

Has a touch of class and did place 3 of 10 behind Dalasan in the Carbine Club last time out. 

I suspect that they could be teaching this horse to settle, and may take a sit on this occasion with the blinkers removed for the first time.

No public trial means any late move in betting will be an excellent guide. Very wary. 

#4 Free Of Debt $11 

Returns from a 10 month break, after running 15 lengths last in the 2019 Golden Slipper last start.

Has the Aquis "ownership curse" and it looks like they've entered him at stakes level here purely for the Hong Kong based boss' pleasure.

Recent results from Aquis are questionable, having burned through significant resources to achieve only minimal results.

Struggling to support an Aquis owned horse with their recent performance record. Avoid.   

#5 Alburq $18

Is from the shrewd Mike Moroney yard, who must have a very high opinion of the horse to enter here.

He drops back in distance from last start over 1400m and will have the fitness edge on most of these.

This is the time of year when the first-up stars are vulnerable, and this gelding certainly has the ability to cause an upset. Looks big odds.  

#6 Spend $4.50 

Won on debut at Rosehill, when he was well supported in betting at his only career start to date. 

He should be fully screwed down, as the Spenthrift team will be keen to keep the unbeaten record intact and rush him to stud after Group victories are secured.  

The Hawkes stable are very good at placing these colts to advantage and any support in betting late would suggest he fights out the finish. 

#7 Express Pass $11

Has been racing in good grade although well beaten at each attempt, including the last start 12 of 16 finish in the Caulfield Guineas.

No doubt he has plenty of talent and will be winning races in easier grade, however some in this field look far too good for him. No. 

Punters betting in Melbourne on Saturday can access a dedicated page for Caulfield tips where pro punters and Australia's racing media who tip at the track, appear with their validated profit statistics.