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Fraser's popularity undermines greater success

Mon, 31 May 2010 11:17 AM

One of the challenges associated with being a successful media tipster is that the price received for your winners diminishes with your popularity. As more and more punters become aware of successful tipsters, more tipsters take the tip which drives the price of winners tipped lower. Michael Fraser, the highly respected SKY Racing analyst, commentator and tipster, is a case in point.

Fraser topped the pro tipsters profit list this weekend after tipping Readyor in the Flying Doe at Randwick on Saturday. Readyor paid $4.60*, a well priced winner in anyone's book. However when you consider that it received quotes upward of $7 pre-race and firmed sharply as race time approached, you start to think that there is more than a track whisper at work here.

Fraser's statistics are consistent with this theory that he suffers from his popularity. His win strike rate of 30% is greater than Greg Miles and Bruce Sessle, who are positioned third and sixth respectively on the leader board. His average winning price of  $2.87, however, bares the scares of the long queue of punters taking his tip week in, week out.

So what advice do you give to a media tipster like Fraser, who clearly visits the pay window often enough to warrant being further up the leader board?

Popular tipsters, like media tipsters, should consider the basic principles of supply and demand and the important role of price to yield maximum profit. By holding back a few of his best tips for sale, basic supply and demand principles will ensure that both punters and tipster are better off.

  • Tipsters are better off because they have a sustainable solution. The better their tips perform, the higher price they can command for them. The price they set reduces demand from where it was as a free tip, which means less punters back the tip and the tipster's average winning price increases. This means their popularity increases their income without adversely impacting their performance statistics.
  • Punters are better off if Fraser charges a price for his tips as the price significantly reduces the number of punters that see his tips and consequently reduces the number of punters backing the tip. As a result the winning price is greater than it would be if the tip was for free.

A simple equation really. The punter pays a little, but receives a whole lot more in return. Which is what this punting thing is all about after all.

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