For a long time commercial tipsters have been branded with a reputation of only picking short priced favourites. Some punters figure this is how the commercial tipsters keep their jobs "..they focus on strike rate because it's too hard for punters to keep track of their profit". We wondered if this claim was actually true and analysed our data to answer the question: Do top tipsters tip roughies?
We found six of the Top 10 tipsters on the leader board had tipped a roughie over the past 6 months.
|Top 10 Tipster||Date||Track||Horse||Win Price|
|Greg Miles||12 Sep 2009||Moonee Valley||PERGOLA||$20.60|
|Shane Anderson||5 Dec 2009||Caulfield||DANZYLUM||$17.90|
|Michael Sharkie||28 Oct 2009||Bendigo||ZUPACOOL||$7.20|
|The Weekend Whisper||3 Oct 2009||Randwick||MISS MARIELLE||$8.00|
|Mark Ryan||18 Dec 2009||Flemington||GARND DESTINY||$10.00|
|Grant Morgan||22 Aug 2009||Doomben||SHADY PROSPECT||$12.30|
When you look at each of these tipsters' average price you start to realise favourites are not the first thing they look for.
|Top 10 Tipsters||Average Win Price|
|The Weekend Whisper||$3.44|
The fact that the majority of Top 10 tipsters are tipping roughies and have a relatively high average price suggests that looking outside of the favoured runners from time to time is actually key to their success.
Maybe it's time for us punters to put the "short priced" brand away. We are not saying that there are no commercial tipsters who look for their best favourite when posting their specials, but this analysis surely proves it is not a brush we can tar all of Australia's commercial tipsters with.