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  • 14:16:48 AEST
  • Tuesday, 13 November 2018

Betting Tips Summary

Title Tajs 5 Lessons
Alias TheAceTip (TajOdds.com)
Race Type Preference Races
Information Source Various sources
Approach Summary 5 lessons to follow to establish your own personal method that leverages your own competencies

Betting Tips Detail

Untitled Document


LESSON 1 The Competence versus Deviance Hypothesis

Well, it's not actually a hypothesis. I've been around long enough now to know this is a reality:

"The more competency you have as an individual, the more deviance in you will be tolerated by society "

What???

I could talk for hours to you about this but it would be wasted I can see. Essentially it means you should concentrate your life around the skills and attributes that YOU have, that not EVERYBODY has, but is NEEDED and WANTED by OTHERS (i.e. Competence). If you are good at maths, focus on that; if you are good at predicting events, go with that; if you are good at art or running or music, go with that and develop the skill further. DONT focus on your DEVIANCE (what you fail to do well, or can't do, or things that bring you negative attention).

A good punter in life will invariably utilize the talents he or she possesses. If you are not good with basic stats then don't try using the Don Scott ratings method. Find an approach that suits your competence (skills or attributes that you have, that not everybody has, but is wanted and needed by others).

Shouldn't I practice things I'm not good at??

NO! Not if you are going to then neglect your competence. It makes no sense. The world NEEDS you and your COMPETENCE. it doesn't want you focusing on what your not good at!

So.....if I'm good at maths at school but no good at English I should focus on Maths???

Now you're getting it!! The more competence you can show the more deviance will be tolerated in you by society in general. Competence gives you access to the community, it gives you contacts and it gives you QUALITY OF LIFE (regardless of your deviance)

What do you mean "deviance"??

DEVIANCE is anything that brings you negative attention. It might be getting caught picking your nose, it might be some strange behaviour, your appearance or your inability to complete basic life tasks. Without competence, deviance can be devastating, but WITH competence, deviance can be almost irrelevant.

What has this stuff got to do with me making money??

Focus your punting approaches around your competence as an individual. If you think you are good at mystical predicting, then focus your strategies around 'feel' and whatever you use to predict the future. If you are strong at stats USE that competence. If you can read animal behaviour USE that skill. If you can READ trainers body behaviour USE that competence (not that they are good judges). Punting is about getting an edge in value via an edge in approach, not following the crowd.

PLEASE REMEMBER IN EVERYTHING YOU DO AND WHEN EDUCATING YOUR CHILDREN: FOCUS ON YOUR COMPETENCE..WHAT YOU DO WELL...THEN DO IT BETTER AND BETTER....YOU HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO YOUR COMMUNITY TO USE THAT SKILL OR ATTRIBUTE. DON'T WASTE YOUR TIME FOCUSING ON DEVIANCE

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LESSON 2 Slowing Down

This is REALLY tough in today's world, but if you can just practice it the world of punting is yours. I will not go into the details of why as I'm not sure you've grasped Lesson 1 yet so just follow me blindly for now. I want you to do this:

1. Find a task you do either every day or a few times a week and slow it down 5 fold

2. Ok - you go and get the paper every Sunday morning and the walk takes you 20 minutes. I want you to do it next Sunday and take the same route but take 100 minutes! It might be your walk to work which takes 30 minutes....do it but take 150 minutes.

3. Do this 5 fold trick twice a week for 3 months (less than 1% of people will do it so I don't hold much hope)

4. When taking your stroll 5 times slower use your time to check the guttering, the houses, the smells, the leaves on the ground, the insects. Where are the ant nests? Are they active? Is it going to rain? What birds are about? Why are Mrs Smiths blinds still closed? Say hello to old Bart. SLOW.

The best punters in the world are experts at SLOW! It needs practice. Experience in SLOW gives you respect for the world, gives you patience and makes you LESS likely to make impulsive errors. Some other hints on goal setting follow:

(a) Choose the mountain (goal) you want to climb: don’t pay attention to what other people say, such as “that one’s more beautiful” or “this one’s easier”. You’ll be spending lots of energy and enthusiasm to reach your objective, so you’re the only one responsible and you should be sure of what you’re doing.

(b) Know how to get close to it: mountains are often seen from far off – beautiful, interesting, full of challenges. But what happens when we try to draw closer? Roads run all around them, flowers grow between you and your objective, what seemed so clear on the map is tough in real life. So try all the paths and all the tracks until eventually one day you’re standing in front of the top that you yearn to reach.

(c) Learn from someone who has already been up there: no matter how unique you feel, there is always someone who has had the same dream before you and ended up leaving marks that can make your journey easier; places to hang the rope, trails, broken branches to make the walking easier. The climb is yours, so is the responsibility, but don’t forget that the experience of others can help a lot. Just because they have been there does NOT make them better than you.

(d) When seen up close, dangers are controllable: when you begin to climb the mountain of your dreams, pay attention to the surroundings. There are cliffs, of course. There are almost imperceptible cracks in the mountain rock. There are stones so polished by storms that they have become as slippery as ice. But if you know where you are placing each footstep, you will notice the traps and how to get around them. Practice being SLOW again!

(e) The landscape changes, so enjoy it: of course, you have to have an objective in mind – to reach the top. But as you are going up, more things can be seen, and it’s no bother to stop now and again and enjoy the panorama around you. At every meter conquered, you can see a little further, so use this to discover things that you still had not noticed.

(f) Respect your body: you can only climb a mountain if you give your body the attention it deserves. You have all the time that life grants you, as long as you walk without demanding what can’t be granted. If you go too fast you will grow tired and give up half way there. Enjoy the scenery, take delight in the cool spring water and the fruit that nature generously offers you, but keep on walking.....slowly.

(g) Respect your soul: don’t keep repeating “I’m going to make it”. Your soul already knows that, what it needs is to use the long journey to be able to grow, stretch along the horizon, touch the sky. An obsession does not help you at all to reach your objective, and even ends up taking the pleasure out of the climb (see Gamblers Help). But pay attention: also, don’t keep saying “it’s harder than I thought”, because that will make you lose your inner strength.

(h) Be prepared to climb one kilometer more: the way up to the top of the mountain is always longer than you think. Don’t fool yourself, the moment will arrive when what seemed so near is still very far. But since you were prepared to go beyond, this is not really a problem.

(i) Be happy when you reach the top: cry, clap your hands, shout to the four winds that you did it, let the wind - (the wind is always blowing up there so be careful!)- purify your mind, refresh your tired and sweaty feet, open your eyes, clean the dust from your heart. It feels so good, what was just a dream before, a distant vision, is now part of your life, you did it!

(j) Make a promise: now that you have discovered a force that you were not even aware of, tell yourself that from now on you will use this force for the rest of your days. Preferably, also promise to discover another mountain, and set off on another adventure.

PRACTICE GOING SLOW!!! Map out 4 square metres of your backyard. Sit down for 30 minutes and study it in minute detail. Smell it, scratch it, dig it up a bit, stare at it, write about it! Work around your garden until you know why and how it works. Its a different perspective that gets you value!

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Lesson 3 Pursuers of the Possible versus Predictors of the Inevitable

"I am telling you - it doesn't matter what we do it will happen again anyway. " .....does this ring a bell? This is a Predictor of the inevitable speaking. They state the bleeding obvious, engender apathy, they say "we told you so", use no energy in their life if they can help it, and offer no new solutions. "Been there, done that" sort of people.

To get true value in your punting and in life generally, you need to surround yourself with Pursuers of the Possible and avoid Predictors of the Inevitable. Here is a little table that might help you remember who to make contacts with and to build your Favour Bank..

REDICTORS OF THE INEVITABLE PURSUERS OF THE POSSIBLE

We are helpless to change Have confidence in themselves & others

"Told you so" They try to gain support

These people are apathetic Pursuers are not always successful

"Been there done that"! Pursuers make more errors in life

"You're wasting your time" Their record of predicting events is not

Their prophesy often becomes reality as good as predictors

It takes no energy It takes energy to pursue the possible

Even though the record for telling the future is not as good as predictors, it is better to test your strength and be wrong than believe in weakness and be right. Anyone that has lived knows the Predictors in their lives. Most of us at some stage become Predictors of the Inevitable when we age so if you are 40+ Be warned! . Become aware of when you slip into this mode and seek to become a Pursuer. Surround yourself with Pursuers whilst you still actively listen to the Predictors. Within a week you will inwardly smile at the Predictors statements and move forward with ease

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Lesson 4 Don't Bet!

What?...Isn't this what the site is all about?

Yes...we bet...BUT...the MOST important lesson and learning is knowing when NOT TO BET and this is most of the time. The Tajodds website avoids the dangerous or risky races where there are too many unknown factors like horses coming off wet track from, first up or second up form, or where many runners have suffered checks or wide running so it is hard to assess their chances. We also avoid races where we assess too many chances.

Yeah, Yeah...heard it all before! Be selective etc etc etc

You hear but you don't act. You decide to stick only with the Ace Tip but then you see the Biggest Value Horse making money and you jump ship....then you follow Deano...then a mate who has a maiden in at Geelong. You just don't learn do you?

But you're no fun!

Yes I am ....see...I can smile! Just TRY something and stick with it for once! If you NEED more action...employ it! Make some rules for selections. Here is an example:

  1. Do your own form however you do it...I don't care if it is on names, colours, number patterns ...whatever...but have some ownership
  2. Select a few horses you like based ONLY on your assumptions
  3. Filter these by using a quality rater (e.g. Tajodds or Expertform). If Tajodds doesn't rate them a chance then wipe them.
  4. Set a price you are prepared to take for your bet or use the Tajodds price.
  5. Back your horses with 2.5 % of a REAL bank. If you only have $100 that is $2.50 folks! I mean it! Don't pretend because even the Ace Tip who has increased the bank over 1000% has had a run of outs of 17 in the last year! Be Warned!
  6. This point is too tough for you I know. Stick with your rules for 12 months.
  7. Do it today. Draw up your rules, monitor your bets, set up your separate bank account, avoid the tips even ours! Don't just try...DO IT! If you need action, employ it , but with good rules.
  8. DON"T bet if you can't get your price! I know it is annoying when your selection wins and you opted out but this rule is vital. We often rate horses well on top that also become our LAY OF THE DAY because they are far too short in the market. They move from horses to invest on to horses to avoid! NEVER just bet on selections or tips...make sure you set a minimum price you are willing to take.
  9. NEVER bet under even money ($2.00)

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Lesson 5: 20 Points of Wisdom

20 Words of Wisdom come from making mistakes and having success and watching and knowing some of the best punters in the land, and some who thought they were and are now broke.

  1. DON"T be like a sheep and follow the money. IGNORE the market movers and stick to your decision and facts. 90% of horses that win races drift in the market and you end up with better value.
  2. NEVER bet on heavy tracks, but more importantly NEVER bet when tracks are deteriorating or slippery. Horses hate it and form goes out the window.
  3. Leave maiden horses alone. Horses are herd animals and some just never want to win despite their ability.
  4. Don't bet on horses first up. Even the trainers don't really know how they will go fresh against fitter opposition.
  5. Beware of 'systems' that just list rules to follow. These have usually been put together based on history that doesn't repeat (at least whilst you use it!)
  6. If you bet for fun only, be prepared to lose your investment and consider it entertainment
  7. If you bet for profit you need a business plan, high discipline and sound tools (selection and staking methods)
  8. Nearly all punters lose because of poor staking consistency, lack of a bank, and faith in their method during runs of outs. The Ace Tip is the best selection tip in Australia, but it can have a run of outs like any other.
  9. Use speed maps to find which horses can lead off a moderate pace and give these horses a big bonus when doing your form.
  10. Some jockeys actually ride better from a wide draw (e.g. B Rawiller). Give these horses a bonus if drawn wide.
  11. Some jockeys love to lead and rate their horses (e.g. Gauci). Use the speed maps to find if their horses can lead off a moderate pace and allocate a big bonus if so.
  12. Don't back favourites in Class 1 races if they have just come off a good maiden win. The nearly always represent poor value.
  13. Don't bet on horses under $2.00 even if you or Tajodds has rated them shorter. Over many years of Australian racing these horses represent poor betting value.
  14. Zabeel 3yo fillies over 1400 are well worth a look
  15. Zabeel horses jumping from 1400 to 2000 or further can improve much more than other breeds in general. We often allocate 6kg improvement with success.
  16. Weight can stop a train, but it stops classy horses less than average horses. The high class horse has the ability to carry weights more efficiently, so don't get stuck in pure handicapping mode and miss the best horse in the race.
  17. Barriers are not as important as trainers and punters think they are. After many years of assessing and checking results, it is the position in running that is important and barrier advantage/disadvantage is related to that position.
  18. Never chase your losses, or use suicidal plans where you increase bets until you win. That is the worst staking method of all and causes suicide! NEVER increase bets just because you had a win, unless it is part of your long term plan and based on a % of your bank.
  19. Don't listen to jockeys or owners as they are the worst judges.
  20. Don't risk heavy investment on a horse unless the jockey is very competent

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