I focus most of my efforts on Australian horse racing.
I rate each horses run
(try to watch most weekend metro meets) and what I miss I check against the
weekend newspaper post race reviews. I develop trends for each horse's campaign.
Horses tend to fit in to 5 broad groups (however there are many subgroups).
- Climb and
- Climb and
- Do well
- Up and Down
and the very rare
Climb and fall
- horses start off average and continue to improve from that point. Peaks
then declines. They are a candidate for selection when they are climbing (you
know that their next run will be better than their last). I rate the field
against this runner's last field with the understanding that they will improve
and assess accordingly.
Climb and maintain
- similar to the last category compare on the rise and when they plateau you
assess as maintaining last runs rating.
Do well early
- these runners tend to start their campaigns very strong but get burnt out
quickly. I tend to let their first run go to make sure their up. Then I rate
that run with the knowledge that I have one or two more races to apply that
rating before it declines.
Up and Down
- don't touch them and be wary of them. I tend not to assess races where there
are too many of these horses involved. My mates have a name for horses like
these - they meow.
- assess them with the knowledge you are more than likely to get them at their
best (e.g. the mighty Sunline and the Big 'O').
Need to make allowances
for unlucky runs or circumstances where the horse doesn't like the running.