Betting Professionals' Profile

Name Dave Nevison
Age 47
Birth Place UNITED KINGDOM   Image
Residence United Kingdom
Estimated Worth Unknown - est. income £50 thousand p.a. minimum.
Method Summary Looks for value picks. Runners who he assesses as overpriced in the market given their chance of winning.

Betting Professionals' Method

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Method

  • Nevison looks for value bets. Value bets are where the market has underestimated a horse's chance of winning therefore pricing it higher than its chance of winning.

  • Nevison first considers the type of races to focus his attention on. He focuses on races where it is easier to predict the running of the race. He emphasises the importance of understanding the running of a race when he says "...you need to see it in your head". To improve his chances of predicting how the race will be run, he limits most of his analysis to races with distances of no more than a mile. This reduces his risk of picking a race where the speed is not true.

  • Nevison assesses the form of runners in selected races including their historical speed performance. He will establish his own price for each runner based on his assessment of various factors associated with each runner. He will then focus on runners that the market prices at over 15% higher than the price he arrived at (this is a potential value bet).

  • He considers the chances of the favourite when determining his selections by categorising the favourite on a scale from 'legitimate' to 'false'.

Key Facts

  • Nevison wakes at 4 am each day to analyse form and prepare for the day.

  • He started as a professional horse picker when he took a £70,000 pay-out from his job.

  • He favours Handicap races up to a mile. He understands that it might be easier to pick winners in Group races but tends not to focus on them as it is more difficult to make a profit i.e. identify value bets.

  • Nevison sites one of the key challenges of the trade as being able to handle the losing runs.

  • Nevison suggests sticking to a single branch of racing, to have patience with it, continue to learn about it and master it.

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