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Form Guide Lay

3/8/19 Horse racing Lays of the Day for Saturday races


Exposed and weighed down

In this week’s edition of Lays of the Day, we focus on two runners that will be hugely popular with the “non-price sensitive” public mug money.

Both will attract interest due to an exposed profile, with the one at Randwick likely to be a popular cross-sport multi roll for the rank and file punter.

If you're looking for long-term profits, always bet against the horses weighed down by public money. Both of these selections fit this profile. Lay. 

 

Randwick Race 2 #7 True Detective $2.00 

I doubt he gets the right run here, with an abundance of speed engaged around him when launching from a mid draw (barrier 6).

The rider will be forced to either burn early, or take hold and race wide. 

Both of these options will make winning a challenging task and the short price does not reflect this. 

The public mug money will come thick and fast due to the ‘Waller Factor' and you can expect him to be included in mug multi rolls all across the country. 

There is plenty of quality elsewhere in this field and that looks to be where the value lies.

Expect a significant market drift late in betting. Avoid. 

 

Moonee Valley Race 7 #4 Masculino $3.90

Has been up a while now as he lines up for his sixth run in, and being deep in the prep means he's one run closer to being over the top.

His public profile is now very well exposed and he'll be the one the mugs back across the tote boards. 

Whilst the recent form is sound, he has found one better at his past two starts and I believe he meets better qaulity in this field.

Moonee Valley often requires a perfectly timed, uninterrupted run and the inside draw for an off-speed horse can work against.

Having drawn barrier one and with the main speed horses drawn out, Masculino is likely to be crossed and held up. From there, he'll need plenty of luck to extricate and sweep home.

Expect him to be much longer in the market by the time they line-up and he should be avoided at all costs. Lay.

Punters and expert form analysts are often obligated to tip in every race on a program. It's their best bets that represent their own opinion. We weight the tips they flag as best bets higher, and we show their performance as staking profit on the horse racing tipster leaderboard at theGreatTipOff.com

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