• Join
  • Login
  • GTO Twitter
  • GTO Facebook
  • 20:45:45 AEST
  • Wednesday, 24 January 2018

Betting Odds - let's get real


With the coming of the digital age, betting odds have received much greater attention than ever in the history of Australian thoroughbred racing. Years ago you were stuck with the Tote price if you were punting off-course or you took a trip to the track and swirled around the bookie ring looking for the best fixed odds on the boards.

These days with a plethora of odds types on offer from bookmakers, and odds checkers available to punters online, there is an ever growing population of punters on a quest to find the best odds every time they punt.

How smart a punter?

It might be a controversial opinion but if here it goes - if you are not setting you own betting market you are better off taking a "Best of" odds types available at bookmakers like Ladbrokes.bookmaker ring

Punters who have the time and resources to accurately set their own market pay attention to price because they are seeking odds on offer which are greater than the price that they have assessed as "true odds" for a favoured runner. In this circumstance fixed market analysis makes a lot of sense. Punters putting in the many hours required to master this approach will usually abstain from placing a bet if they can't get a reasonable margin over their true price for a given runner.

If you are not doing this sort of analysis then you really have to ask how practical an odds checker is for you. If you are staring at a screen with ten sets of markets, are you prepared to have sufficient funds in each betting account to take the highest available price at the point where you are ready to bet? Some punters maybe, but the overwhelming majority of punters have funds in one or two accounts at any one time and that's it.

Top of the market

If you can't accurately assess your own betting market and you are still focussed on analysing fixed odds markets, then you're probably trying to get a price that is as close to the top of the market as possible. That sounds like a worthy goal but how does one actually do this?

Response #1 - Early betting markets have the best odds

The most common approach I hear from punters looking for the top of the market is to bet early. I have personally observed betting markets for some time now and I am not convinced this is true. While I haven't compiled years of data to disprove the theory, I believe the recent Group 1 Stradboke Stakes meeting is a typical example of how fixed markets behave.

betting fixed odds market

SP = starting price; BT = best tote; Open = prices available when the market opened; Low = lowest fixed price available; High = highest fixed price available

Comparing the 'Open' column, which shows the opening odds at Ladbrokes, to the SP and BT price, we observed that the opening price was the highest fixed odds price available in only three races on the nine race card, challenging the theory that early odds are always best.

 

Response #2 - I have instinct

I guess it's possible that a punter could have instinct about where the top of the market lies but it's unlikely that he will be able to continually scan the market to utilise that instinct. The Stradbrokes Day markets at Doomben suggest you would have definitely missed in four races if you were following your instinct to take price drops as a signal to pounce - Races 3, 6, 8 and 9 saw prices blow-out, in some cases over 100%.

In two of the other five races - Races 2 and 5 the odds went higher before they went lower, so it's difficult to see how instinct could drive one to place a bet at precisely the right time to capture the highest point in the fluctuation cycle.

Betting odds implications

As a service provider that sits in the middle of Punters who share their information, and those that follow that information, we are very conscious of the discussion that plays-out with regards to prices used for a tipster's winning selections when calculating their profit.

Tipsters Argument

The punters placing their tips usually argue that they should receive the highest Fixed Odds available over the market's cycle. However we have argued back that this approach is not realistic for the punter following the selections as there is no practical way that they can achieve the highest fixed odds each time a bet is placed following their tip.

Critics Argument

Critics have argued that we should use a starting odds product like SP or middle/best tote, which ever is available for the race in question. This approach, however, does not account for the Fixed Odds range that is available to punters over the course of the betting market which on a number of occasions is likely to provide opportunities to get higher odds than starting or middle tote prices that are available.

Through a lot of consultation with punters and form analysts in the media, Best Tote was unanimously viewed as the fairest price to use for a tip, even if it is not available for the race. Looking at the results from Saturday's Doomben meeting above, Best Tote is below the mid-range of fixed odds for four winners of the races and a mere 5 cents away on another. Which puts it right in the middle of what the two groups are asking for.

Buyer beware

The uproar about prices used by some subscription tipping services to measure a tipster's performance has some merit. When we review the results posted on some of the subscription tipping websites where they claim to make a profit, we often note that the prices that they use are at the top of the fixed odds range.

While it is possible for the tipsters to achieve these prices, it is highly unlikely that punters taking the tips will even get close.

Mike Steward

Share On:

Top Stories

Punters' Post Mortem 20 Jan 2018

With the rail out 8m at Randwick, the track favoured those close to the rails in the run. Back-markers had a hard time o.....

Jan 22, 2018 05:03PM
READ MORE

Race preview: Kensington Stakes 2018 Flemington

The 1000m listed Kensington Stakes headlines a nine-race card at Flemington on Saturday, with a small fie.....

Jan 19, 2018 02:17PM
READ MORE

Race preview: Summer Sprint 2018 Randwick

The standout race in Sydney on Saturday is the Summer Sprint at Royal Randwick. The 1000m dash has attracted a talented .....

Jan 19, 2018 02:03PM
READ MORE

Speed Maps Specials for Randwick 20 Jan 2018

Randwick Race 3 #11 Nunya Bizz The Moruya based mare has draws an ideal barrier two, with early speed to hold her posit.....

Jan 19, 2018 01:57PM
READ MORE

Betting Offers

click and get your bonus today!

* T's and C's apply to all offers.


Racing News Topics


Tweets by @theGreatTipOff


Today's Racing Top 5

HOLDINGACES
Punter
400% POT
TonyWorlandT..
Punter
280% POT
VacantLot
Punter
210% POT
Bawheid
Punter
176% POT
rowdylegend
Pro
158% POT
Full Leaderboard
Ernie Mannin..
295% POT
Lincoln Moor..
289% POT
Nick Quinn
280% POT
Paul Joice
200% POT
Terry McAuli..
143% POT
 
Lincoln Moor.. 289% POT
Paul Joice 200% POT
Terry McAuli.. 143% POT
Andrew Oldme.. 130% POT
Paul Micalle.. 45% POT
 

Next to Jump

More news you might like

Speed Maps Specials for Randwick 20 Jan 2018

Randwick Race 3 #11 Nunya Bizz The Moruya based mare has draws an ideal barrier two, with early speed to hold her posit.....

READ MORE

Speed Maps Specials for Flemington 20 Jan 2018

Punters are looking at a Good 3 surface at Flemington this week with the rail out 9m. With the feature race being run do.....

READ MORE

Best bets for Saturday racing from Sandgroper 20 Jan 2018

There is nothing like a home ground advantage. Punters tend to know their local tracks better than any other and it.....

READ MORE

Best bets for Wednesday from Sandgroper

Accomplished punter Sandgroper outlines two of his best bets for Wednesday racing in Victoria.   Damascus Dame - .....

READ MORE

Magic Millions 2YO Classic 2018 Race Preview

The $2M Magic Millions 2YO Classic headlines a bumper nine-race card at the Gold Coast racecourse on Saturday. A fu.....

READ MORE

Magic Millions 3YO Guineas 2018 Race Preview

Considered the curtain-raiser to the 2YO feature event, the 1400m Magic Millions 3YO Guineas deserves it's own spotl.....

READ MORE

Copyright © 2018 S93 thegreattipoff.com | Stay in Control. Gamble responsibly.