Moonee Valley Twilight

20/03/20 Moonee Valley Tips: William Reid Stakes Preview

Top Shelf Sprinters

Distance 1200m
Grade Group 1
Track Rating Good 4
Prizemoney $500,000
Class WFA 
2019 winner Sunlight ($1.70)

This year's William Reid field is stacked with quality, featuring the typical older stars and a strong contingent of top line three-year-old's.

Expect there to be good speed here early, with a number of noted leaders engaged and drawn wider. 

I am opposing the race favourite due to the significant traffic issues he is likely to encounter from the inside draw in barrier 1.

  

Race Track Moonee Valley Track Traits

The Moonee Valley surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the True position the entire course.

Overcast conditions are predicted in Melbourne for the remainder of the week.

Expect the track to race evenly with this set-up, however keep an eye on the early races to determine any fast lanes or bias. 

 

Market Movers Racing Market Movers

There has been a slight ease in betting for race favourite Bivouac, who is $2.40 out to $2.50.

All other runners remain steady. 

 

Horse Racing Key Runners

#1 Scales Of Justice $9.00

Is from the big betting Lindsay Smith stable and there has been some early money to suggest he is going well.

He did win the Australia Stakes here over the same 1200m distance only two starts back, which must be respected.

Although this is a very high quality field, if the support came late I would be wary. Watch betting. 

 

#3 Gytrash $10

Won the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington two starts back, when he appeared to race in the best part of the track.

He has since come out and run well to place 3 of 11 in the Newmarket Handicap at Flemington, proving the first-up win was certainly no fluke.

Despite this impressive form-line, some are happy to pot him. He is right in this however, and should receive plenty of favours from midfield in the moving line. Leading chance. 

 

#4 Vital Silver $20 

Interesting WA runner, who arrives first-up and does enjoy racing fresh (5:2-1-1).

He was only 0.75 lengths behind Loving Gaby here in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes two starts back, which is good enough form to be winning this.

I would love to see some market support inside the final few minutes before start time. Watch betting.

 

#6 Mystic Journey $15 

Is all class and although more noted for her heroics over longer trips, she still has good ability over the sprint distances.

The stable have been preparing her more as a sprinter this time in, and we could see a very dynamic horse first-up.

Unfortunately she strikes one of the strongest sprinting fields this race has seen in many years, and will find it tough to match some of these. No.

 

#7 Pippie $12

Led and brained them all at Caulfield in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate, where she was flattered by the severe on-pace bias that day. 

Even though she was suited by how the track played last time, she still showed a blistering display of sustained speed and could easily repeat that here.

This is harder, however if she leads and is left alone in front, expect her to be fighting out the finish. Top chance. 

Pippie

 

#9 Bivouac $2.40 > $2.50 

Is all class and simply brained all our top sprinters and many of this field in the Group 1 Newmarket last start.

Drawing the rails here should be a distinct disadvantage for him, as he will need to hunt up early to hold a position and avoid the dreaded three back/rails trip. 

Although he looks the best horse in the race, I doubt he is suited by the draw and expect him to encounter traffic issues.  

Bivouac

 

#10 Exceedance $7.00

Was heavily backed to win Bivouac's Newmarket last start, where he got too far back and didn't have the right tow into it when finishing 6 of 11 .

I am happy to forgive the last start effort and the rider change to Tommy Berry looks a positive. 

The SP profile suggests she is right in this, having been the subject of late money on a number of occasions. Now that the mugs have dropped off following the last start failure, she looks the value. Goes on top. 

 

#11 Loving Gaby $5.50

Chased hard in the Newmarket last start to grab second behind Bivouac, when she came with a strong run from midfield.

She is all quality and the stable may change tactics here to race in a more forward position, just in behind the leaders. 

If she gets clean air and the speed is on up front, she will be the one flying at them late. Yes. 

 

Of The Others

#5 Zoutori has had genuine excuses recently. He ran-on well in the Oakleigh Plate against the severe leader bias two starts back, and then jumped awkwardly in the Newmarket before settling too far back.

Given any luck here, watch for a big improvement. 

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Racing Tips

1st  Exceedance 

2nd  Pippie

3rd  Gytrash

4th  Bivouac 

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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