Mar 07, 2019 06:12 PM
Author: James Beeson
Light weight special
Grade Group 1
Track Rating Good 4
2018 winner Redkirk Warrior ($7)
The time honoured Newmarket (first run in 1874) always attracts the nation's best sprinting talent, with the capacity field of 24 and handicap conditions providing plenty of intrigue.
This year's edition features no fewer than four 3yo's, each with a genuine winning hope.
I am with the most favoured of the 3yo brigade, who won't know herself carrying the feather weight of 50.5kg.
She will look to dictate from either on or close to the speed, and appears very likely to be there at the end.
Flemington Track Traits
Flemington is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail out 4m the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday.
Last time out at
Flemington the inside draws held no significant disadvantage for straight racing.
This surprised many punters, who were under the assumption that the middle to outside section down the straight is the place to be.
This week, I expext the riders to revert back to the normal pattern of steering to the middle and outside lanes, which will favour the wider draws.
Racing Market Movers
Race favourite Osborne Bulls has had some support ($4.20 into $3.90) whilst Zousain is a notable drifter in betting ($12 out to $17).
#1 Redkirk Warrior $26
Returns to defend his 2018 winner's crown, however looks well below the form shown last season.
It seems as though the arduous trip and associated campaign to Royal Ascot last year flattened him and they often never come back from that.
Well found by the handicapper and unlikely to trouble most of these. No.
#2 Santa Ana Lane $13
Class gelding who dominated here last start to win the Group 1
VRC Sprint Classic.
First-up is ok (8:2-0-2), however he is better later in the prep and could be a little vulnerable in this with a big weight.
Can certainly win, yet looks a shade unders at the current $13 and you can expect a market drift out beyond this price.
Better value elsewhere.
#4 Osborne Bulls $4.20 > $3.90
Was a huge run to just miss first-up in the
Black Caviar Lighting, when he charged late from a near impossible position.
The stable continue to boast how good he is in the media and they look spot on with their assessment.
Will get well back, before steaming home over the top of most. Leading chance.
#6 In Her Time $15
Drew inside and won the Lightning well. She defied a historically strong straight track bias on that occasion, which suggests she is hard to overcome.
Corey Brown will have her sucking up down the outside section and in behind for the entire trip, before unleashing hell at the 200m mark.
She is all quality and the Lees stable have her going better than ever.
Must be considered a top hope. The value! ($15)
#14 Eduardo $9
Was ultra impressive in the
Oakleigh Plate when second behind Booker, after working hard early and riding the speed throughout.
Second-up form is good (2:1-1-0) and he has had some luck drawing outside in gate 21.
He is as tough as teak from out in front and they will have to be very good to catch him, racing hard up against the outside. Yes.
#20 Graff $8.50
Boom 3yo colt who was a touch luckless in the Lightning first-up, when he raced fierce early before charging late.
If the "Wizard" from the west gets him to settle and is provided the right cover and cart into it, there is no doubt he has the ability to win.
Just needs the brakes to come and we could see this good colt take the next step. Huge threat.
#21 Zousain $12 > $17
Was the victim of a woeful ride last start when Craig Williams decided not to press forward and take control from the onset.
He had excuses that day, however the shine has slightly come off following his last start loss in a race he was expected to dominate.
The mug punters will drop off here and it is a good time to chime in if you like him (betting against the crowd).
This could be the best price you ever see him jump at and the pro's will be very interested. Yes.
#22 Sunlight $12
Looks the one here who will give a great sight from out in front or close to speed.
She is a proven Group performer, having won the
Coolmore Stud Stakes to finish last prep. She then ran a brave third in the Lightning in her return this prep.
Her weight is the key and with only 50.5kg to carry, she won't know herself in this.
Will sustain a blistering speed throughout and simply break the hearts of a few of those higher in the weights.
Of The Others
#19 Encryption was brave last start in the Oakleigh Plate, when he rattled late from well back to grab second behind Booker.
The stable whispers are that he is very good and the price looks a touch overs here at $21.
No weight and could surprise a few at odds.
Best Racing Tips
1 st Sunlight
2 nd Osborne Bulls
3 rd Graff
4 th Encryption