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Avilius

9/3/19 Flemington Tips: Australian Cup

Tagged: Flemington

Gun stayers eye Autumn

Distance 2000m
Grade Group 1
Track Rating Good 4
Prizemoney $1,500,000
Class WFA
2018 winner Harlem ($61)

A number of high-profile stayers resume here to kick off their Autumn campaign, which is likely to reach a crescendo in Sydney over longer journeys.

The past Melbourne Cup winners will have their work cut out against a few entered here, who have quality in their own right and a key fitness edge.

They must also face a white hot runner who looks to have the race at his mercy.

He could continue into the Spring and be crowned one of the best we have seen. 

The favourite looks very hard to beat and should simply win.  

 

Race Track Flemington Track Traits

Flemington is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 4m the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday.

Most profiles get there chance over the longer distances at this venue, and it is no disadvantage to race on or off speed.

On occasion however, on and up the rail can be preferred with the wider sections unfavoured by riders.

As always, a close watch early is advised to determine the presence of any track bias.

 

Market Movers Racing Market Movers

Race favourite Avilius has been a slight drifter ($1.80 out to $1.95), whilst Almandin has attracted some support at odds ($20 into $17).

All other runners remain steady.  

 

Horse Racing Key Runners

#1 Almandin $20 > $17

Class runner who is always genuine at this level and around this distance range.

He is on a similar path to last year's Autumn campaign, when he finished 4 of 12 in this race before winning the Group 1 Tancred at Rosehill. 

The 2000m distance record is good (8:1-3-1), however I doubt he is the one Team Williams have screwed right down.

He will be better suited in Sydney deeper into the prep and over more ground.

Prefer others. 

Almandin

 

#2 Rekindling $13

Has not been seen since victory in the 2017 Melbourne Cup.

Still only lightly raced (10:4-2-0) and may have more upside to show over the middle and classic distances.

It will depend on how forward the stable have him and he looks likely to be one they are serious about to win this. 

The betting will be an excellent guide with all Team Williams runners and if they single him out, it could pay to follow. Watch betting.

 

#3 Ace High $13

Made an excellent return in the Carlyon Cup, before improving again in the Peter Young when finishing a close up 3 of 11.

He now gets to a suitable distance, where his record over the trip says yes (3:2-0-0).

Will race midfield in the moving line, before peeling out to run home hard. Must include. 

Ace Hight

 

#4 Trap For Fools $15

Has the fitness edge and finds a low pressure race, where he can lead with ease and dictate to them all from out in front. 

Expect a few to get to him in the shadows, however he could easily pinch it if they crawl throughout.

The last 50m will be interesting. Can hang on! 

 

#7 Avilius $1.80 > $1.95

Looks all quality and very hard to beat in this, following the ultra impressive runs at both starts back this prep. 

He settles well and has the ability to unleash hell over the final 200m, even without a decent tempo present.

Looks absolutely bomb proof and with a fitness edge, this race is gifted to him.

It would not surprise to see him start shorter and he must go on top. Yes. 

 

#12 Night's Watch $11

Carries a huge boom from the stable and many good judges, yet he has failed to deliver the knock out blow in recent times.

This is clearly a deep race and he should find plenty of these too strong on this occasion.

Hopefully he gets thrashed and we'll be able to back him at a price in an easier race. 

 

#13 Sikandarabad $19

Was very brave last start and looks the one that could improve dramatically this time in, when finally out to the genuine staying distances.

From the wide draw (gate 14), he will be forced to race back worse than midfield. 

However, he can find the moving line and will be able to launch on his own terms.

This is very hard but he is up to it.

Looks the value runner. Yes

 

Of The Others

#8 The Taj Mahal is the likely pacemaker for the other Team Williams runners and the instruction could be to pour plenty of pressure on and bring them into it.

If Nick Williams defies stewards by employing these tactics, the horse still has the ability to lead throughout and hang on.

Can pull their pants down. 

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Racing Tips

1st  Avilius

2nd  Sikandarabad

3rd  Trap For Fools

4th  Ace High

All of Melbourne's experts in the racing media with Flemington tips posted on Saturday appear in our Tip Market.

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