Feb 01, 2019 12:11 PM
Author: James Beeson
The bookies could be in for a huge fill up on Saturday, with two short price favourites appearing to be facing plenty of challenges.
Both line up in the feature events at key venues and both have significant obstacles to overcome.
There's no doubt these runners are quality gallopers, however their prices appear well under the odds and simply do not reflect their true chance of winning.
Both are likely to start longer. Lay.
Rosehill Race 6 #6 Alizee $2.00
She has come up far too short in the feature Expressway Stakes, which includes a field that is dripping in quality.
The market is already taking a set against the filly after bookmakers opened her at the prohibitive quote of $1.85, with even money now widely available with most betting operators.
The speed map looks ugly, where she'll be forced to go back in the small field and pray that there is some form of tempo up front which will allow her to run on.
In any case, there is no getting away from the fact that this is a high quality field and any number of her competitors have the ability to win on their day.
The field will roll along at only a steady pace and she will need to be producing unbelievable sectionals to get past the leaders.
Likely to keep on drifting all the way out beyond $2.50 and is one to avoid at all costs. Lay.
Caulfield Race 7 #1 Nature Strip $1.55
Appears only to be a speedy squib and with any pressure from Written Tycoon, will struggle again to run the 1000m right out.
He was touted as a leading contender in The Everest before being found out last start at Moonee Valley over this distance, when he did it tough wide and then capitulated.
Whilst there is no huge risk he will be wide here, the biggest threat is pressure from second favourite Written Tycoon who may in fact want the lead.
This will force rider Mark Zahra to take a sit and the horse has historically over-raced when ridden under restraint.
If they do find themselves behind the leader, the next challenge is extricating off the rail to run home. This will be no easy feat considering Ashlor and Belwazi are likely to have him pocketed.
Expect a significant market drift close to jump. Lay.
There are more opinions from racing experts for Saturday's racing on our best bets racing page