The action heads to Geelong, with the rail out 3m. I expect the track to offer a slight advantage to those on speed, but it should still play relatively fair.

Let’s cut straight to the chase with a standout bet for the punters in Race 4.

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Race 4 #4 – Leaving Las Vegas

Why is Leaving Las Vegas the bet of the day?

Here’s the breakdown:

Last Start Form

This gelding savaged the line last start off a fast tempo, running the 3rd fastest final 100m of the meeting.

The race shape to the 600m was the equal fastest of the day, further highlighting the strength of his performance.

Importantly, the form from that Morphettville race on 28/12 has stacked up remarkably well.

Four horses from that race have since run, with three winning and the other finishing 3rd. It’s a clear and strong form reference that boosts confidence in his chances.

Stackhouse & Stokes Combination

Trainer Phillip Stokes and jockey Daniel Stackhouse are both in red-hot form:

Phillip Stokes: Operating at a 21% win strike rate from his last 100 runners, well above his career average of 17.6%.
Daniel Stackhouse: Riding at a 15% strike rate over his last 100 rides, significantly better than his career average of 11%.

Together, this pairing boasts a 16% strike rate from their last 100 runners—a proven and reliable combination.

The Setup

Fourth-up and coming off a career PB last start, Leaving Las Vegas looks primed to peak again.

With nearly three weeks between runs, he’s well-spaced and ready to fire.

This setup suggests he’s capable of delivering another personal best and putting this field to the sword.

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