Among a stack of talking points ahead of Saturday’s Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes, one stands out like a sore thumb.

"How can the market gap between superstar mare Via Sistina and proven UK seven-year-old Dubai Honour be so wide?"

Yes, Via Sistina deserves favouritism, fourth-up, drawn perfectly and clearly targeted at this race.

But $6.50 early about Dubai Honour? That’s got to be overs in a deep weight-for-age contest that brings together world-class talent.

It doesn’t stop there.

There are two other runners both well into double-figure odds, who can absolutely shake the life out of this prestigious feature.

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Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2025 Tips and Best Bets

Track Conditions

Despite a clearing forecast, stick with Soft 5 as your base track rating.

There’s still some rain due to hit in the 24 hours leading in, and with significant traffic over the Randwick surface by this stage of the day, genuine good ground is no sure thing.

Speed Map Insights

There will be pressure early, with a long list of runners drawn wide who all like to roll forward:

Lindermann will spear across from a middle barrier and take up the running.
Fresh off his Group 1 Australian Cup win Light Infantry Man will push forward from out wide, joined by Deny Knowledge and Vauban.
Tom Kitten is drawn to settle much closer than usual. Likely no more than three lengths off the pace, with Via Sistina tucked inside him and Buckaroo just behind them from the low draw.
Dubai Honour maps to slot in midfield with cover.
The Japanese pair Rousham Park and Geoglyph should drop out the back.

The Favourite: Via Sistina

She’s the rightful favourite, no doubt.

All the signs say she’ll peak fourth-up and she gets her preferred conditions.

But at the current quote, she’s under the odds for mine.

In this world-class field, I’d want $2.50 or better to consider playing.

Via Sistina

Neil’s Best Bet

I’m playing this race for value, and there’s plenty of it.

Buckaroo ($17.00+) is massive each-way value. He ran on from the back in the George Ryder and will be much better suited second-up over this longer trip.
Tom Kitten ($21.00) has a stack of ability, and his Doncaster run was better than it looked. He got buried on the inferior inside ground and never got his chance to build momentum.

I’ll be taking both Buckaroo and Tom Kitten each-way, plus combining them with Via Sistina in a boxed Exacta.

For the trifecta, throw in Dubai Honour, who just needs a bit of cover early, and Vauban, who drops in trip but gains a race full of pressure that will suit his staying strength.

Tom Kitten

Neil’s Top 5

Via Sistina – The one to beat, but too short in a deep field.
Buckaroo – Overs and ready to pounce second-up.
Tom Kitten – Forgive last run. Massive value at current odds.
Dubai Honour – Proven WFA performer, primed to strike.
Vauban – Drops back in trip, but the race shape brings him into it.

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Neil Evans

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