29/8/20 David Gately Caulfield & Rosehill Racing Review & Forgive Files
Caulfield Racing Review
Racing was at CAULFIELD on Saturday on a GOOD-4 track then there was an upgrade to GOOD-3 before Race 6.
Rail was back TRUE and there was no bias evident.
Caulfield Run of the Day
It was Sydney three-year-old ANDERS who easily topped the voting with 69% well ahead of now G1 winner BEHEMOTH at 20%, and MUGATOO gaining 7%.
The highlight race was the G1 Memsie Stakesand they were not mucking around from the outset with BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER joined by STREETS OF AVALON and they scorched through their 1st-600m +4.6L versus the G1 average for this track and trip.
When comparing that section to all 1400m races run here, they were around +13L so the race was set-up for the best (off-pace) athlete.
The winner BEHEMOTH had a dream run with the trail, but given the fierce speed was entitled to be vulnerable late for the big finishers… however, he kept running and had 1.5L up his sleeve on the line only needing the 8th-fastest last 200m to win the race very well.
He did run the race-fastest 400m-to-200m split which is where the race was won. His overall time was 1-22.71 which was almost 1L above the G1 average, this was (of course) set-up by said fast pace early.
MR QUICKIE made a lovely return coming from well back, edging off the inside and closing in 11.54 over the last 200m (3rd-fastest of race) for a clear second.
Three year-old GLENFIDDICH had every chance racing alongside the eventual winner but he battled very well. There was good money for him to beat these older horses which did surprise me, however, he has backed that up to some degree with a rock solid G1 placing here.
CASCADIAN’s race was lost at the start. Slow into stride then forced very wide on the turn. Whilst MR QUICKIE worked between runners, he still rushed home and recorded 11.17 over the last 200m. This was race-fastest and a very nice split given the strong tempo.
SO SI BON was a solid 5th with every chance.
HARLEM hit the line sweetly (11.60) as did PRINCESS JENNI (11.48 - 2nd-fastest) and the latter does fly second-up as a rule.
Race 7 was the McNeil Stakes for 3YOs. There were plenty of good performances which always makes me a little nervous, as does the fact there was 1L over the first six over the line.
In these situations it is easy to assume one of two things: either they are all good, or they are all average.
Winner was IMMORTAL LOVE who missed the kick 1L or so (they may well have learnt something here) and ended up near the tail on the inside before edging out on the bend and rushing home.
Runner-up FLYING AWARD was also slow-out. This guy was niggled at first (some 700m from home) and didn't quicken as well at first, which proved costly. The winner made it into that gap whilst this guy raced in restricted room more than once. He did look stiff.
TAGALOA was the best of the on-pace runners and did give them all weight. He had to be used up a fraction early to hold his spot although the lead-speed of 35.89 over the 1st-600m was 1.6L below the class average.
EXTRA TIME sat just off him, but being 4-wide (only one turn Caulfield sprints remember) and still looming as a potential winner 200m out made his run very good. He was 2nd-up (many others 1st-up) and had weight advantage but, yeah, the run was super!
RANTING was another who was slow out, he was back alongside the winner at the 600m but went very wide on the bend and fancy that cost him the race! By the time he straightened up he was a good 3L off said winner and ran him to .8L running 11.32 last 200m which was race-fastest. Swap the runs/ swap the result for mine.
CROSSHAVEN was that 6th-horse and right on their heels despite being tightened-up late. The first six place getters had 2.5L on the rest of the field. Did like the last 100m of NATIONAL CHOICE though. Fancy he wants a gear change, and further, and can win soon.
The race time: 1-10.89 (-3.3L versus the class average) was significantly slower than the mares race (Race 10 won by Perfect Jewel) despite a .09 faster 1st-600m however, these are new season 3yos and the Cockram Stakes was a G3 for older mares.
Lets’ go to Race 10 the Cockram Stakes for mares and we note PERFECT JEWEL returned a strong winner running 1-10.22 off 35.98 1st-600m (1st-600m was -2.7L versus the class average). The overall race time was +.5L versus the class average. Despite the moderate tempo, these girls produced a strong last 600m - go figure.
The winner sat midfield, hooked out 5L off the leader and attacked the line running 33.78 / 11.02 home (last 600m/ 200m) with that final 200m split being 3rd-fastest all-day.
She ran by the flying BLESS HER who had the lovely trail and cruised by leader SHE’S A THIEF (who held 4th) but had no answer for the winner.
SHE SHAO FLY continues to race well and continues to be underestimated by the market.
STREET ICON was an honest 5th but the run of the race was the luckless MADAM ROUGE who was restrained early then baulked at a key stage before rushing home 10.94 (and 33.88) which was the fastest all day. If you took the early TAB odds… Insert your own vomit emoji abouuuuut now !!
Oh, PRETTY BRAZEN hit the wire nicely late too which made a lie of her, lets say, average jump-out form.
RUBISAKI the disappointment. Maybe the track ws too firm by Race 10 ???
Back to Race 6 the Heath Stakes 1100m. The winner DIAMOND EFFORT sat off a strong speed, wide with no cover (only one turn here in sprint races) and joined in strongly to score. She just didn’t give quite enough galloping room to key rival LYRE at the vital stage who looked semi-reluctant to take that narrow gap but when things opened up more she zoomed late to just miss. LYRE did look unlucky to my eye.
RUNSON sat up second and fought hard when the two mares went to her. We touched on the solid clip here too, 29.30 for the 1st-500m which had them right on the G3 average for this trip.
BOLD STAR was tough to miss, well back off the rail turning and still 6-7L off straightening, then flew home 11.04 to just miss. Breaking down her splits versus field she was 7th-fastest 600-to-400m/ 4th-fastest 400-to-200m, then clear race-fastest home.
GARNER also attacked the line. His breakdown was (11th - 2nd - 2nd- fastest) so he went quicker than BOLD STAR 400-to-200m, his final split was 11.16 and yeah, 2nd-fastest of the race.
HUMMA HUMMA ran very well covering more ground than the winner.
BANQUO measured-up well and SUPERSTORM was just run off his feet (as expected) at the 1100m but hit the line hard (12th / 8th / equal 2nd-fastest home = 11.16).
Overall race time: 1-3.24 for the 1100m was +2.3L versus the class average. While the last 600m figures were very good also versus the Group 3 average.
I AM SUPERMAN won Race 4 fresh given the perfect ride. To the eye the leaders looked to run along but a 48.59 1st-800m is not flying. In fact, the early sectional was 1L below class average. Winner quickened nicely to run a slick 400m-to-200m (a split bettered only by TOFFEE TONGUE) then 11.74 (6th-fastest) home, but had it won.
The match-fit MORRISSY had a good trail but was tightened at a key stage getting over heels. He closed off into second with the flashing light run being NONCONFORMIST who was back turning and behind some slow ones. He was only really 'full-bore' 280m from home, yet ran 11.28 which was the clear race-fastest.
REYKJAVIK kept closing with 59kg, which was no help.
TOFFEE TONGUE found the line nicely. Her splits home relative to the race were (6th fastest / First / Fourth - 11.72).
Liked the run of SIMPLY INVINCIBLE here fresh off a long break after working early, watch him!
The race time was 1-23.71 which was useful but -2.3L versus the class average.
Race 3 was for Mares at 1400m and SO YOU SWING attracted some good bets at a price. She sat back last then ran them all down despite a modest 49.13 1st-800m (early sectional -2.5L versus class average). No shock she was the race fastest with her final 2 x 200m splits here and her 11.12 last 200m was neat.
THOUSAND WISHES had the dream run and joined in at the right time but was nutted.
MY GOLD BRACELET was back near the winner following 4th (PARADEE) and burst through, but she just missed.
PARADEE was the sob story here. Never closer than 3-deep and has gone down .3L with the trifecta all having much softer runs.
AFFAIR TO REMEMBER was not flash away but was back with the winner early. She went between runners (winner hooked out) and closed nicely. Her 11.40 was the 5th-fastest home and she was on the heels of the first-4 on the line.
MY PENDANT ran home 11.30 (4th-fastest) fresh.
The race time was 1-24.27 which was -3.3L versus the class average.
Caulfield Forgive File
WINDSTORM (restrained? race over/ home 10.96 2nd-fastest of day),
THE CLOSER (ran out of room last 100m),
PARADEE (wide run costly),
STROME (never clear),
YULONG JANUARY (too wide),
NORTHWEST PASSAGE (wide),
LYRE (touch stiff key stage),
EXTRA TIME (worked in run/ good),
RANTING (forced wide costly?),
LOCA (no luck),
OUR PLAYBOY (covered ground),
BRANDERS RULE (wide/ drifted back/ forget),
PLEIN CIEL (wide/ so honest),
STEEL PRINCE (got lost/ race-fastest last 200m),
CASCADIAN (slow out/ ran very well),
BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (went hard/ had no peace too),
MYSTIC JOURNEY (lame),
STREETS OF AVALON (worked outside fierce tempo),
REGAL POWER (poor recovery),
GATTING (tardy/ wide),
MADAM ROUGE (should have won),
RUBISAKI (too firm??),
JAMAICAN HURRY (back/ wide),
BROADWAYANDFOURTH (raced tight),
FIDELIA (checked mid race),
MISSILE MANTRA (bad check mid race!).
Rosehill Racing Review
In Sydney racing was at ROSEHILL on a GOOD-4 track with the rail out 3m. I thought the track played well. It was certainly no swoopers paradise and there was no disadvantage leading or on-the-rail, but plenty of horses ran-on on the day.
The feature on paper was the G3 San Domenico and what about the win of ANDERS? Is this Nature Strip mark two?
He flew out of the gates running 28.81 1st-500m, this early split was some 7L above class average and +10L faster than the overall average here at 1100m, yet, he kept running! He stopped the clock at 1-2.67 which was not only +6.4L faster than G3 3yo average here but also within .16 of the track record! Wowee!!
I went back and had a look at Nature Strip’s last 1100m run on dry ground. He led the Rubiton Stakes field (Sept 2019) in 28.28 1st-500m (and down easily, in fast time), so, if the races were run together, Nature Strip would have been 3L in front of even ANDERS with 600m to run…. Hmmmm….. Oh, the others:
PELTZER battled manfully into second 3.3L away in a good return (he has still run very fast time himself) and MAMARAGAN was out-sped here. Back last run-off his feet but loved his last 100m. In fact he was the race-fastest for the final 3 x 200m splits and his 11.44 over the last 200m was near .3L faster than that of PELTZER (next best).
DOUBTLAND was the disappointment. He traveled okay, was held-up a touch, but quickly got clear and then just held ground home (12.09 last 200m). Need to see him again now.
The other quality 3yo race was the G3 Ming Dynasty (Race 7) at 1400m. This was won by the leader also, but it was a completely different set of circumstances.
HOLYFIELD did work across and took over 1000m out, so to the eye, they appeared to be rolling. But 48.67 was the 1st-800m fraction which is -3.2L versus the class average. He steadied, then kicked and held off two strong finishers:
BAZOOKA (last three splits home ranked: 1st/ 4th/ 1st) with an 11-flat last 200m, and,
OVERLORD who was slow out then ran home 11.05 (split ranking home: 2 - 1 - 2). He will be fitter and has a good race in him but he has to be cleaner out of those gates! He has been tardy now in all bar-one of his race day starts, and trials !!
AIM was a close-up 4th with every chance. These runners beat rest clearly.
The race time was 1-22.55 which is a good gallop off that moderately tempo - just -0.8L off the class average. The last 600m was +2.4L though.
PRIME STAR caused a blowout in Race 6 sitting off a strong speed and keeping DESTINATION 3-deep were the key factors here.
BOTHERED led SANGRIA and they can both go hard, and they did - 29.34 1st-500m was +4.4L versus the class average however. Anders would have led them both by around 3L so, shows how slick that 3yo was, again.
No knock on winner and this race has rated very highly (last 600m +1.9L / Overall time 1-3.03 +6.3L) with real merit in closing fractions despite the tempo. So its a race I want to trust, in saying all that, DESTINATION was a good thing licked.
ELECTRIC GIRL made a good return off sharp trial form with the quinella just having the last crack at her.
PLONKA ran on well, only the tragedy that was DESTINATION was home faster last 200m.
MUGATOO proved too classy in the Premiers Cup. Perfectly handled off pace with clear air and the tempo was far from frantic with leader TAIKOMOCHI (who can roll on his day) holding back. He was entitled to fight when collared 200m out, and he did (as he does!) but couldn't hold off the trifecta:
Winner MUAGTOO, runner-up SIKANDARABAD (had rails trail/ missed run inside but had his chance really) and HERENGAWE (every possible/ solid). So, these all sat handy.
The best closer was GIRL TUESDAY, loved her last 100m especially. Back off midfield and bumped turning, she then balanced up and ran 11.16 over the last 200m, a clear race-fastest versus the race - sharp! She looks ready to win.
SAVACOOL is going well also. Her 11.32 home was bettered only by Girl Tuesday and RONDINELLA who was way out the back. She went 11.27 home.
Race time was 1-56.02 which was -4.6L versus the average.
PRIME CANDIDATE won Race 9 and was well-liked back on dry ground. He also pounced on the lead and got away with 36.28 1st-600m (-4.7L), so it was pretty much race over halfway. He slipped away and ran 1-9.97 (-2.7L) holding off WANDABAA who is flying. She just raced tight, getting clear just as the leader kicked, yet balanced up and ran him to 1.3L.
NUDGE was closing off nicely inside into 3rd first-up. These two both ran 11.08 over the last 200m.
SUBPOENAED was in a striking position turning and kept closing. I've marked her a sound return.
ENTENTE was wide and held on well.
TENLEY ran home 10.94, this split was the fastest of the day.
Rosehill Forgive File
SAIGON (never fully clear/ still ran on very well),