26/9/20 David Gately Caulfield & Rosehill Racing Review
Saturday Racing Review
Run of the Day
Plenty of quality performances but no surprise the spruik horse RUSSIAN CAMELOT won the popular vote with 40% majority. Sydney 3YO OLE KIRK had 30% with filly INSTANT CELEBRITY and G1 Moir winner PIPPIE both on 15%.
Racing was at CAULFIELD on Saturday on a SOFT-6 track. Riders (most) avoided the inside lanes immediately (from race 1) and winners of the last three races were beyond the middle of the track in the home straight.
RUSSIAN CAMELOT won the G1 Underwood Stakes controlling things up in second position on a genuine G1 speed (1st-600m +.7L versus the G1 average) then took control and was strong to the line running very good overall figures. In fact, on pure maths/times this was his career PB. He ran 1-50.85 overall for 1800m (+1.4L versus the G1 average and some +14L above all averages).
Love the way he built his speed (last 3 x 200m splits ranked 7th / 4th / 2nd - despite riding that speed) with only HUMIDOR (rank: 1st / 2nd/ 1st) running a stronger last 200m by 4/100ths of a second (12.24 versus 12.28).
He was great again HUMIDOR saving ground (not best going) tracking third-placed ARCADIA QUEEN before peeling away from those inside lanes 225m-odd from home.
ARCADIA QUEEN, in a baffling move, stayed on this inside lanes. She ranked 4th/ 5th/ 6th home going with Russian Camelot for a while however her 12.56 home (last 200m) shows how much stronger they were late. Was it the ground? Is she fitter (1400m-to-1800m) or is she a shadow of the horse we saw win a Kingston Town in WA brilliantly?? Not sure, I guess the next run tells all.
GAILO CHOP settled 4th and followed the winner. Whilst he was no match he kept battling hard (3rd-fastest last 200m).
TRAP FOR FOOLS led and whilst no match, held on okay for 5th beaten 3.7L.
Race 7 was the Thousand Guineas Prelude for 3yo Fillies and INSTANT CELEBRITY was quite dominant. She was not flash away (last early) then recovered to be off midfield wide with a trail. She improved 700m with cover and sustained the run to win by 1L running 1-25.28 off 48.52 1st-800m. The first section of the race was a solid +3.7L versus the class average and overall time, +1.2L.
The winner recorded the fastest 400m-to-200m split of the race to put it to bed then only needed 4th-fastest last 200m (12.56) to hold off a wall. Said wall was five fillies. There was just .5L between them (2nd to 6th) on the wire so what does this tell us? Well, it tells us there was very little between them (sound simply when you say it out loud) but do concede track was Soft-6 and had a pattern, and many of these girls still have a stack of upside. The reality is though, when you have such a blanket go, most of the time they are all either good, or they are all average.
Runner-up PERSONAL was only 2nd-up and just wore down leader NIGHT RAID.
ROCK MY WAND split them on the wire. She was back and under pressure a long way out yet still ran race-fastest (12.32) home so she is the one that looks desperate for the mile already.
LOVE SENSATION ran fifth and was forced to come through inside PERSONAL (doubt A-ground) yet was 2nd-fastest home (12.38) with ECUMENICAL holding on for 6th after sitting very wide… Hmmm.
The boys went around in Race 6 in their Guineas lead-up and this race was dominated by those nearer the speed. Hardly a shock when you see a 49.51 1st-800m (some 6L slower than girls) and CROSSHAVEN sat up second on the leader NATIONAL CHOICE before taking over and again, he was strong to the wire.
That first section was some -2.7l versus the class average and overall time 1-25.57 was -1.2L versus the class and .29 slower than the girls division.
AMISH BOY followed the winner everywhere and gave his all but the winner kept running. National Choice held third despite rolling back to slower inside lanes. He was much better ridden positively here. The best closers were CAMBOURNE (final 3 x 200ms ranked 9th / 1st / 2nd) running 35.28 / 12-flat last 600m/200m, and, AYSAR (ranked 8th / 2nd / 1st) who came wide turning (Cambourne went between runners) and his last 200m split of 11.80 was clearly race-fastest.
WINDSTORM broke though in Vic and he did it impressively given the (surprisingly) slow tempo.
BUFFALO RIVER led and normally rolls along but this day (1st-up) his 1st-800m split was 50.19 so even 3yos National Choice (almost 4L slower) and Night Raid (10L slower) would have been way clear of him with 600m to run had those races been run at the same time. They built speed soon after 800m.
The winner WINDSTORM had to produce a big last 600m figure (34.96 - +10.6L versus all averages) and his 11.68 last 200m was the equal-fastest all day.
BUFFALO RIVER held second and may well be fitter, however, he was being set for G1 Rupert Clarke last week so hard to swallow the 'fitter now' tag for mine. I do feel he is better let run though.
MORRISSY had a gun trail and joined Buffalo River. They had a little 2-horse war but yeah, both were swamped.
GOLD FIELDS ran on strongly off that -9.3L versus an average tempo and his 11.80 last 200m was bettered only by the winner.
The race time was 1-25.83 way (-6.5L) below class ave but they couldn’t smash the clock off that tempo.
JUNIPAL was impressive in the last race, sitting off a strong (+3.2l) tempo, before clearing out by near 4L.
SHOT OF IRISH led and didn't have much peace so thought he did well to keep second from EXASPERATE who looked gone 700m out but responded to riding and closed-off 2nd-fastest over the last 200m (behind Junipal).
FUTURE SCORE was 3rd-fastest home, NONCONFORMIST 4th-fastest but he never looked the winner there 2nd-up.
The race time for 1700m was 1-45.82 (moderate last 600m / -3.8L versus the average).
Caulfield Forgive File
POWER SCHEME (bit unlucky),
CLEAN ACHEEVA (only fully clear 220m/ home race-fastest!),
RAINBOW THIEF (lame),
JITTERY JACK (wide on-speed),
NO EFFORT (went too soon),
GOOD IDEA (went forward 800m/ had no hope),
LORD BOUZERON (led/ attacked early!),
SKYMAN (worst ground),
YULONG RISING (wide also),
LE BAOL (lame),
PRAGUE (colic post-race),
FLYING AWARD (resp. noise/ lame),
MOZZIE MONSTER (railed/ worst going),
JENNI’S RAINBOW (lame),
ARCADIA QUEEN (stayed in/ worst going),
WIDGEE TURF (not best ground),
KIWIA (stayed in),
In Sydney it was ROSEHILL and track was GOOD-4 to GOOD-3 with the rail TRUE. It was certainly a better day to be handy and on the inside lanes but a few defied this theory. Six of the nine winners either led or sat right on-speed.
The G1 Golden Rose was Race 7 and they went out hard. ROTHFIRE crossed and led running a 47.17 1st-800m and the trifecta were in the last three spots at this point of the race.
That first section was a hot +6.5L versus G1 average and set-up a fast overall time of 1-22.61 (+2.2L versus G1 average / +9.1L versus all averages).
The winner OLE KIRK was back and held-up straightening but was bolting. The run came 300m out and he built speed quickly, he had too because NORTH PACIFIC was wider and had full momentum at that point. They had a 2-horse war but OLE KIRK held his stablemate at bay.
The winner’s final 3 x 200m splits ranked 2nd/ 3rd / 2nd whilst the runner-up was 3rd / 1st / 1st. That last 200m differential was 1/100ths of a second only. They had 2L on KING’S LEGACY (home 1st / 2nd/ 3rd) who was good to the line back along inside rail.
ROTHFIRE somehow held 4th after sustaining a fractured sesamoid. Doubt this is a massive wrap for those behind him but PELTZER was honest/ even in 5th.
Let’s line this race up with 2019 edition: BIVOUAC beats YES YES YES and EXCEEDANCE - they ran 1-21.88 off 48.1 1st-800m. Certainly no loafing speed but Rothfire would have been 5-6L in front of them with 600m to run, had the races been run together. Despite the much stronger tempo, last year’s overall time was nearly 4L faster so… Rothfire aside (as he was injured) it is safe to say this crop has a bit of ground to make up on last year’s stellar trifecta.
Race 8 was Gold Pendant and SUBPOENAED was able to put herself in the race (drew a gate !) and had a sweet run off the speed outside with cover. Lead-speed was a strong 47.98 1st-800m (+.6L) as HAUT BRION HER had to work to take it up. The favourite gave a kick but was swamped over the last 125m.
Runner-up EMERALDS was just off the winner mid race. She didn't quicken like the winner did but she was strong late. Her split-rankings back this up. She was 6th-fastest 400m-to-200m then ran 11.28 (2nd-fastest home) whereas the winner SUBPOENAED was race-fastest 400m-to-200m then 11.48 (7th-fastest) last 200m.
JEN RULES won the prize for the fastest mare home, running an 11.20 last 200m.
EVALINA ran home sweetly also, her 11.30 was 3rd-fastest and overall time 1-22.59 was +1.4L versus the G3 F&M average for 1400m.
G2 Shannon Stakes was Race 6 and I AM SUPERMAN took control of the race early, up second on a modest -4.9L speed he went clear 200m out and won quite well. His overall time for 1500m was 1-29.10 (-3.6L) and he held off RIODINI who clearly should have finished closer.
LOOKS LIKE ELVIS had a good run and peeled 3-wide before the turn but couldn't get by the quinella.
SCARLET DREAM was the eye-catcher charging to line line versus the tempo/ pattern and running 33.36 (+11L) last 600m then 11.08 home (5th-fastest all day).
NICCANOVA didn't quicken (9th-fastest 400-to-200m) but was good late (11.28 - 3rd-fastest race) with NUDGE finding the line sweetly nearer the inside. She went 11.24 home and is ticking over very nicely.
WILD RULER won the Heritage Stakes for 3YO and did it with 58kg running some strong last 600m/ overall figures versus the Listed race average (+3.2L / +2.2L) with 33.68 / 11.12 (600m/200m) and 1-3.55 overall for 1100m.
He took sit on OSAMU who did some work and went 29.71 1st-500m (bang on the class average) and took over then held off DESTINATION who was off the midfield rail. He had a good run through sure, but had to love his closing speed. His 10.96 last 200m was only bettered by Purple Sector (R9) all day.
FORBIDDEN LOVE was solid/ honest with every chance but did look a false early favourite.
OSAMU held 4th.
SIXGUN was back and hard at it but built nicely late (home 11.10 - 2nd-fastest of race) and looks like he needs further.
LOVE TAP won the G3 Gloaming by leading (new string to bow!) and there was pressure/ speed early. They went +3.3L 1st-600m and 1-13.99 1st-1200m. Nash put the brakes on before the turn then kicked strongly holding near 2L on the wire, beaten a near line of four.
Overall the race time was good: 1-48.89 for 1800m had them +3.1L versus the class average.
STREET DANCER went up second as the pace slackened and battled hard to keep second from BUCHAREST (tracked-up/ never stopped trying) with FAVREAU flying late. His 11.52 last 200m was the race-fastest but the race was lost when he lost ground before the turn ending up back last.
EASY CAMPESE battled well behind after striking trouble mid race. So 2nd to 5th here: .5L.
Rosehill Forgive File
COSMIC HAZE (back/ wide/ race-fastest home),
TEMPEL ONE (wide),
LUDIVINE (check mid race),
SHENANDOAH (covered ground),
SHE’S IDEEL (great Vs pattern!),
KUMASI (slow out/ way back),
ENCOUNTABULL (cardiac arrhythmia),
MISS SISKA (lame),
YAMAZAKI (too far back),
TYZONE (wide too soon),
SHOUT THE BAR (early work/ ran well),
HAUT BRION HER (did too much early),
POSITIVE PEACE (no luck vital stage!),
AIR TO AIR (wide),
SEASONS (wide on-speed),
BOTTEGA (most unlucky !!),
MIRRA VISION (never on track),
DANCING GIDGET (traffic/ tempo no help).
Better touch on the G1 from Friday Night MOONEE VALLEY where the track was a GOOD-4 to SOFT-5 and the fence was off from Race 1 then they edged wider and wider as night went on.
PIPPIE won the speed battle (no shock) and travelled well then left the rail and held them all off… Too fast !!
She went 23.39 1st-400m and ran 58.39 for 1000m overall.
TREKKING made a top return back inside then edged way off the rail (great ride) and ran on hard into 2nd pipping BELLA VELLA who stayed hard on the inside rail (not best ground/ very good).
BROOKLYN HUSTLE was tardy/ on the rail at the turn (worst ground) then when she edging off the rail she surged late to get close and doubt she ever made it to the best part of the track.
DIAMOND EFFORT was going well but had nowhere to go at most vital stage, yep, unlucky!
BOLD STAR back/ forced wide on the turn then zoomed to the line widest also went super.
HEY DOC (wide) and FABERGINO (never out of trouble) clear forgive runs here.