19/9/20 David Gately Caulfield & Randwick Racing Review
Saturday Racing Review
Run of the Day
Thanks to all who voted in the twitter poll. Near 3,000 votes were tallied and you went with BEHEMOTH (39%) narrowly over Sydney gun CLASSIQUE LEGEND (36%) with a gap to IT’S ME (19%).
Racing was at CAULFIELD on Saturday on GOOD-4 track, an upgrade to GOOD-3 came before Race 7. The Rail was 3m and there was no bias/ pattern evident. Despite this, it was a very 'messy' day with a stack of hard luck stories and, to the eye, more interference than usual for this track?
The G1 Rupert Clarke was the feature at Caulfield and BEHEMOTH was, well, monstrous in winning it with 60kg! His ability to accelerate after being held-up at a crucial stage and sprint over his rivals, with the big weight, tells me it was a case of 'all honours winner' even allowing for the string of hard-luck tales in the race.
Basic physics tells you acceleration is increasingly difficult as weight is increased and he was really only fully clear 220m-ish from the post.
The speed was strong (as expected) with leader DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR running 47.84 1st-800m. The early section of this race was run +2.5L versus G1 average so, speed was on but there is little doubt they go harder if BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER steps clean and/ or is ridden to his strengths (he won this last year running 46.3 1st-800m which was +7.7L above G1 average).
Dollar For Dollar ran a great race to keep second after leading at this speed. He was still able to give a nice kick before being run over late.
PRETTY BRAZEN had clear air (one of not many) and ran home nicely into 3rd (just missed 2nd) and did get forced wide on the point of the turn so, she was terrific. She had race-fastest last 400m but could only manage 4th-fastest last 200m (11.40) whilst the winner was 11.40 (2nd-fastest).
Top-honours for race-fastest home, MADAM ROUGE (11.34) after being restrained early from a bad gate and sitting a mile off them. She is flying!
ACHERNAR STAR had a gun run (rails trail) and grabbed 4th from REYKJAVIK who was just off the winner turning, then raced tight for a stride before hitting line 11.45 (3rd-fastest).
TAGALOA was wide/ terrific for a 3yo with 54kg (3kg above WFA - equivalent for an older male, like winner Behemoth, would be 62kg!!).
BANQUO was solid, just needs it a bit easier.
SUPERSTORM looked to be building momentum beautifully and actually ran up alongside the winner at the 250m mark before his luck ran out. He was 5th-fastest home (11.8) without being tested… I guess we will never know… Time: 1-23.84 was 2.2L below G1 average?
There were two other 1400m races on the day, let’s go to them first:
Race 5 was the BM90 for Mares and FABRIC won it, as she did last year. This time however she went back (she was on-speed when winning last year) showing her amazing versatility. So, she was tardy (1L) and last before making ground in-between runners, she was saved-up for one run with in-form Craig Williams hardly moving until the top of the straight and she burst through running the race-fastest last 400m/ 200m and nailing PARMIE.
PARMIE had a dream run and was in for the fight but missed the bob. The winner did give her 3.5kg so it's hard to make a case that the runner-up was ‘’unlucky’’.
LA TIGERESA came from midfield, peeled wide before the turn and ran home strongly (last 3 x 200ms splits ranked: 1st /5th/ 3rd) and these three all came through that MV race so, it was the ‘’right form’’.
SO YOU SWING tracked LA TIGERESA, came widest, ran home nicely (ranks: 3rd/ 3rd/ 2nd) and STROME was close-up after racing nearer the speed. There was just .7L over these five with 2L on RED HEELER (should have finished closer) and the totally luckless FASCINO (she was bolting !!!). Despite the slow speed (49.37 1st-800m - roughly 9L slower than the G1) it was a better race to be a run-on horse.
The race time was 1-25.33 which is some 5.3L below class average.
Race 6 was for 3YO Fillies and ODEUM had the perfect trail peeled over heels and won well. Liked her strength on and over the line as AIDENSFIELD loomed to win 200m or so from home. The winner kept going strongly and held 1.5L on the line.
MOZZIE MONSTER followed AIDENSFIELD everywhere and also ran home strongly. Their splits home were very similar and both still have upside.
YES BABY YES led in 49.68 (-1.9L versus class average) and the winner ran 1-24.96 so, they have run .37 faster than the older mares (Fabric race) despite a 0.31 slower 1st-800m.
REDEEL was 5th and battled well but had her chance.
AGREEABLE ended up at the tail outside just off MOZZIE MONSTER. She had a task given said tempo, she did run home 11.20 her last 200m and this was not only race-fastest but it was .20 faster than anything else (Mozzie Monster 11.40 / Aidensfield 11.48).
Overall race time was just above class average.
The Foundation Cup was Race 7 and the speed was on. The 1st-600m split was +7.3L versus class average and set-up a strong overall race rating (time: 2-01.86 - +3.9L versus class but whopping +14.5L versus all averages).
The winner ORDEROFTHEGARTER had the dream run sure but he won quite well and yeah, ran time so he is certainly not out of the Caulfield Cup conversation despite some saying 'well he only beat Chapada and Steel Prince'. This is the same Steel Prince that ran very well in the 2019 Melbourne Cup and has beaten Surprise Baby at WFA over a trip.
The winner’s final 3 x 200m splits ranked 1st/ 6th/ 7th - 35.56 / 11.92 last 600m/ 200m.
CHAPADA came from well back on the turn being saved-up for one run and ran 34.96/ 11.38 (ranked: 7th/ 1st/ 2nd) with STEEL PRINCE, who had been tracking the winner, ran home (2nd/ 2nd/ 4th - 11.81 final split) but didn't ping immediately at the 2000m.
IN GOOD HEALTH has run enormous again here. Four-wide early in the race, she pressed on and didn't take over until the 1000m (remembering that fast 1st-600m figure) and was still clear straightening up. She then fought when they went to her. Very good effort!
POLLY GREY kept finding the line (3 - 7 - 3 - home 11.80) and GAME KEEPER was solid but for the last 50m where data proved that others were stronger (8 - 3 - 5th fastest home).
Sneaky good run here from GALLIC CHIEFTAIN from a hopeless spot. His last 200m of 11.34 was nice, and, race-fastest).
KINANE… He may be a Flemington horse but I am tired of him. We are going to 'see other people' now I think…
The How Now Stakes was Race 9 and they looked to be hooning early with SHE’S A THIEF leading out. The figures say she certainly didn't over-cook things though, a 35.76 1st-600m is, well above overall averages but still -1.8L below class average.
Winner FELICIA tracked her, quickly took over and won very well running some very strong last 600m sectionals and overall time figures (34.16 last 600m +10.3L versus all averages) and her overall time of 1-10.2 was +11.4L (and +3.5L versus the class average).
BROADWAYANDFOURTH ran home strongly 1-off the inside from midfield and is a bit underrated (was $31 on Saturday). She has run 33.96 over the last 600m and 11.38 home.
FIESTA ran a cracker here fresh. Well back outside and home in a sizzling 33.52/ 11.16. That last 200m was 2nd-fastest all-day. The fastest was BON’S ABROAD who ran 11.12 here from a hopeless position!
LYRE, well, she has to make the Forgive File given the tardy start and she then dipped badly after clipping heels, but have to say, she is testing the friendship.
Race 4 was won by FROM WITHIN who was (surprisingly) able to get an easy lead in a race which looked full of speed.
She went 29.45 for the 1st-500m (was -1.6L below class average) and kept kicking to hold FRONT PAGE (sat 2nd/ never stopped trying).
WILLIAM THOMAS rushed late (33.94/ 11.38), after losing ground early and clearly wanting a stronger tempo, but has run super here fresh.
OCTANE was the hard-luck story. Back on heels at the 500m then last. Went inside and was closing (race-fastest 400m-to-200) before luck ran out over the last 100m. Hmmm…
DESPATCH was under pressure a long way out and couldn't quicken but warmed up nicely late (11.56 - 3rd-fastest home). He needs further.
The race time was 1-3.89 - a good result representing +1.8L versus the class average.
QUEEN OF ROCKS (may well have won it),
CELESTIAL SOL (no luck most of straight),
THE PRES (wide/ worked early),
SUROOJ (no luck key stage),
PORTLAND SKY (no luck vital stage!),
PIONEER RIVER (back/ wide),
LITTLE TOWN BLUES (hung badly),
OCTANE (yeah, may well have won),
FINE DANE (covered ground),
FACINO (never, ever clear !!),
CLARICE CLIFFS (too keen),
SILHOUETTE (bad start no help),
IN GOOD HEALTH (early work/ very good),
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (got lost/ lovely work late),
DR DRILL (lame),
TAGALOA (wide/ good),
MADAM ROUE (got lost/ flying),
MANDELA EFFECT (no luck key stage),
CASCADIAN (still not out),
SUPERSTORM (was building when luck ran out),
BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (tardy. took sit?),
DEBT AGENT (cardiac arrhythmia),
LYRE (tardy/ clipped heels),
BONS ABROAD (got lost),
HUMMA HUMMA (back/ in traffic),
SPANISH WHISPER (covered ground).
In Sydney racing was at RANDWICK on a GOOD-4 track with Rail TRUE. You could win from on-speed or off but you did need to be away from the inside rail in the straight. The jockeys were onto it as most avoided those inside lanes from the first race!
The G1 was the George Main Stakes and Race 6 and KOLDING was able to sit up second and control the race before taking over and then showing great fight to keep kicking and score. 1st-1000m here was run in 58.35 (first section +2.7L versus the G1 average), so those off-speed certainly had their chance according to the clock!
STAR OF THE SEAS had a rails trail but did lose some ground easing wider into the straight before rushing at KOLDING (11.84 last 200m/ race-fastest) to just miss, he was a touch stiff for mine.
IMAGING had a gun run and loomed to win 200m out but peaked late. This was backed-up by the science. He was race-fastest 400m-200m but his last 200m ranked 5th in the race.
VERRY ELLEEGANT had enough tempo and, although raced tight, found sufficient galloping room in my humble but she was simply lacking that dash. Maybe that very tough 1st-up run saw her a bit 'flat' here 2nd-up. Maybe the bone-dry track was against here? Either way, she ran well, just nowhere near as well as she did when winning 1st-up. Her 11.92 home was 2nd-fastest so she did warm-up nicely late. Not sacking her!
COLETTE held her ground well here, and is fitter.
AVILIUS was disappointing over the last 200m. Maybe he too was flat after his fresh run. He is a length better in the wet too.
The race time was 1-33.30 which is right on G1 average.
CLASSIQUE LEGEND won G2 Shorts (SWP) and what a return win it was! Off midfield and keen then tightened before easing wider (now 2nd-last) and widest before exploding late. His last 600m of 33.08 was over 10L above all averages and his 11.12 last 200m was bettered only by Criaderas in Race 9 and by 2/100ths of second.
EDUARDO ran second and he did a fabulous job to keep that spot given he didn’t get in closer than 3-wide (no cover) sitting third. He collared the leaders 100m out but couldn't hold off the winner’s finale.
BIVOUAC was 1st-up and was giving the quinella 1kg. He sat midfield outside the winner but was left 3-wide himself a long way from home and made an early move, good return!
DIRTY WORK was pocketed at a key stage. He cut inside the trifecta and ran well and should have finished closer too. His 11.38 last 200m was bettered only by the winner.
STANDOUT had his chance and loomed to win (his 400m-to-200m splits was easy fastest) but peaked late (11.68 last 200m was 7th-fastest of this race).
The race time was 1-2.23 off 28.59 1st-500m (early split -4.3L versus the class so, they have not gone hard here).
TAIKOMOCHI won the Kingston Town (2000m) after tracking the leader WU GOK who ran along (+5.4L versus class) and kept going strongly to the wire, holding off SHARED AMBITION who looked home 200m out but said winner would not stop!
Shared Ambition was given a perfect ride from the an awkward draw. He peeled to the outside 600m out and ran the race-fastest 600-to-400m then 400m-to-200m but his last 200m, was only 6th-fastest… did he peak on his run?
BRIMHAM ROCKS was excellent fresh then very solid here 2nd-up (sat 5th / had chance) but he is not known for 2nd-up heroics, a win is close.
ZEBROWSKI had a good trail 4th inside but stayed inside straightening (not A-ground) before edging off the rail at the 200m. That last 200m was 11.80 and 4th-fastest (and 4/100ths faster than Shared Ambition) after mere 12th-fastest 400m-to-200m.
GIRL TUESDAY ran home hard again. Her 11.52 home was race-fastest but she needs a win! Overall race time was 2-00.84 which is a good gallop and +1.9L against the class average.
The G2 Tea Rose was Race 4 and again it was all honours DAME GISELLE who was keen early then settled better mid race in 1-1. She peeled out and cruised to the lead before sprinting by the leader VANGELIC (led solid 47.52 - -3.9L against the class average) and holding off HUNGRY HEART who again just didn’t quicken at that vital stage.
She was tight between runners but clear enough for mine. She then eased wider building top speed and her final 3 x 200m splits rankings perhaps tell the story? (7th / 1st / 1st). Her 11.32 was 8/100ths faster than DAME GISELLE but it was a bridge too far…. Will 1600m be a different story and advantage her?
MONTEFILIA was strong to the line, she was only one-off that inside rail so her 11.54 last 200m may have been stronger if wider? She is on target.
MIRAVALLE may be an Oaks filly. She warmed-up late with 11.42 home.
The race time was 1-22.26 which was -2.3L against the race average.
PROBABEEL is a 4yo mare and she won the G3 Bill Ritchie (also 1400m) in 1-22.64 sitting off a modest 48.54 1st-800m. As you see she has run slower time than the 3yo fillies however, that 1st-800m split meant this race was run around 6L slower so they had little hope of smashing the clock! The winner had 57kg versus the boys and was simply too strong. Her 33.46 last 600m figure was some +9L versus all averages.
CUBA led and battled well to keep second but certainly had his chance given the 53kg he carried and -11L early tempo.
BRANDENBURG had effectively the same task as the winner. He settled inside her and battled home well enough.
DADOOZDART followed the winner, the 11.38 last 200m was 2nd-fastest home.
RELOADED didn't finish off, and was 5th-fastest home so, not sure where he is at.
Race 9 was also 1400m and speed was even - 47.69 1st-800m. Overall race time was good. The 1-22.14 was the fastest of the 3 x 1400m races and they have gone quicker than Dame Giselle et al off a slightly slower 1st-800m split.
The winner ACADEMY is very genuine, and no knock ICEBATH who is so ready to win. She again had strong splits home but CRIADERAS is the one to follow. Zooming home 11.10 which was fastest of any runner all day.
Should touch on IT’S ME as she is way above Highway class. Her 56.54 time for 1000m was over 11L above all averages and her last 600m of 32.56 was clearly the days fastest and +13.6L. Her last 200m of 11.12 was identical to that of Classique Legend.
THE FORGIVE FILE:
BOUND TO WIN (blew start badly),
GRAND PIANO (also slow out),
VALENTINO ROSSA (also slow out),
TOTO (not much luck),
LEO (no luck key stage),
VIBRANT KNIGHT (wide),
GALAXY FORCE (limited room),
PEDWAY (wide on-speed),
FUN FACT (3-wide),
CINQUEDEA (tardy/ went inside rail/ worst ground),