12/9/20 David Gately Flemington & Rosehill Racing Review

Saturday Racing Review

 

Flemington Review

Racing was at FLEMINGTON on Saturday with rail back TRUE. We started off on a GOOD-4 and the predicted torrential rainfall, well, never quite fell.


The track was downgraded to SOFT-5 before Race 8 but there was certainly rain/ drizzle leading into that race, and some riders stated they felt the track was ‘’Soft’’ before the official downgrade.


All this makes relative times on the day very treacherous if we are using them to rate performances against one-another. 

The track played well with no major pattern evident. Perhaps hard on that inside rail was not the A-ground. There was a school of thought early that it was ‘’leader-ish’’ but I have no evidence to support such a claim. In straight races they could win/ run well across most of the track, the winner of the final race came through underneath the entire field (but was off the inside rail still). 

 


Run of the Day

Big thanks to all who voted, 2,738 of you to be precise so, a massive engagement. No shock for mine with ROTHFIRE taking the popular vote with 49% from RUSSIAN CAMELOT (29%) and promising MO’UNGA next with 13%. 


The feature at Flemington was the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes.


There did not look to be mad speed on paper. Although GAILO CHOP has been known to run along above G1 average. it was doomed to be a modest tempo once he missed the start.


HARLEM led DALASAN in 63.04 1st-1000m. The 1st-600m sectional here was some 7.8L below G1 average.


The winner FIERCE IMPACT had the perfect run in behind. The gaps came in time and he dug deep to score holding off RUSSIAN CAMELOT who did it tougher sitting 4-wide no cover and making a move before the turn. Yes it is easier to cover ground off a slow speed and yes, I do suspect the fence was ‘’off’’ a fraction but the reality is, swap the runs here and you swap the result (in my humble).


RUSSIAN CAMELOT was entitled to peak late and his last 200m of 11.40 ranked 7th-fastest of the race. Winner ran 33.1 (last 600m)/ 11.34 (3rd-fastest) and these two had 1.5L to spare on the line with a virtual wall of three lining up for third - they were:

  • SO SI BON (restrained early/ recovered/ good run through and gets third with 6th-fastest last 200m);
  • MASTER OF WINE (had good run/ kept closing but slowly-run 1600m 2nd-up was not ideal for him/ he ran 8th-fastest last 200m); and
  • DALASAN (had sat-up second as referenced).

Of the others...


WARNING tried following Russian Camelot but couldn't quicken (tempo/ trip no help) and his sectional rankings back this up. For his final 3 x 200m splits he ranked 11th, 9th then 4th-fastest last 200m - 11.34.


PERFECT JEWEL hit the line 11.34 also.


VOW AND DECLARE was under the whip before the turn (no shock/ 1600m, slow speed) but did in fact record the race-fastest last 200m of 11.24 despite hardly being punished to the wire. A lovely return from him.


The race was won in 1-36.33 which was 4.8L below G1 average.



The Danehill Stakes was Race 8 and DOUBTLAND hit back hard at 1200m here up the straight on a track with give in it. He was back with cover then forced through before showing real dominance late. His 400m-to-200m split ranked 3rd-fastest in the race however, his last 200m of 11.52 was not only race-fastest, it was 0.3 (say 2-2.5L) faster than anything else for that final section.


AMISH BOY was off-speed inside and went underneath them all to get second (splits ranked 2nd/ 2nd/ 3rd - 11.84). Have to conclude (given winner of Race 9 went underneath all) he was not disadvantaged by drawing the pole.


RANTING was a big price off his cracking McNeil run. He went back (again) and was just off the winner DOUBTLAND before easing to the outside and running home hard (ranked 1st/ 1st/ 2nd - 11.82) but yeah, winner was too strong late.


PRAGUE was under pressure a way out, took a gap and joined in 300m out. I am not 100% convinced he loved the straight but ran well.


PERSONAL didn't ping but battled on well to the line (5th-fastest home) and will get further.


ANNAVISTO a ‘sneaky’ good run for mine. Am wary her next start.


Time was good: 1st-600m 35.70 set this up. It was +6.4L versus the class average yet the winner has run 33.64 home (last 600m) stopping the clock at 1-9.51 (+1.7L versus the average - +9.5L versus all averages). 




The Cap D’antibes was Race 9 for fillies at 1100m and they did not go hard here. Lead-speed 30.68 1st-500m had them around 2L below class average.


Winner SEPTEMBER RUN was off the speed inside and was forced to come through underneath all, and she zoomed home recording a big last 600m figure of 32.24.  The last 600m split was not only the day’s fastest, it was the fastest of any horse all day by half a second, or some 3L (on a deteriorating track). That split was near 10L faster than the average for all horses over the Flemington 1100m. Her last 200m of 10.88 was also the days fastest. Her overall time was 1-3.7 (half-length above class average).


Runner-up SWATS THAT was out much wider on the track with her rider still sitting quietly until the 300m which may been costly? Given the modest tempo I do think a more efficient spread of her 'energy' would have been beneficial.  She ran 32.92 home last 600m, her final 200m was just .06 off that of the winner who certainly got going much earlier. Her split rankings may be a giveaway also (12th/ 5th / 2nd-fastest).


MINHAAJ sat just off-pace outside and came with said runner-up. She ran 11.04 home and whilst no match, she ran well and was giving her 1.5kg.


LETZBEGLAM shared speed and battled well for 4th. PARLOPHONE warmed up late (11.04 - equal 3rd-fastest home) but didn't ping (9th-fastest 400m-to-200m). 

ZOUTORI went back-to-back in the Bobbie Lewis showing great will to win late as there were five of them across the track with 100m to go!


The lead-speed was 36.47 1st-600m so the 3yo G2 Danehill Stakes field would have been leading these by around 4.5L at the halfway mark.


ZOUTORI burst through running 11-flat last 200m (race-fastest) to score and ran 1-9.24 so 0.27 faster than those 3yo’s despite the significantly slower tempo (but these are group-class older sprinters).



BANQUO had an odd run and battled hard to just get second from TOFANE who was first-up with 58kg versus the boys and has run super.

THE INEVITABLE came inside TOFANE and ran 11.04 home and DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR led and gave hs all second-up off a long break.


There was just 0.5L over these five on the wire.


BOLD STAR was first under pressure and didn't quicken but his late work was nice (also home 11.04). That overall time mentioned was around 1L below G2 class average (but was the track Softer now than the rated Good-4… Hmmm??). 




The Let’s Elope was Race 3 and PRETTY BRAZEN sat just off midfield outside with cover. Leaders went -1.3L versus the average but she travelled up sweetly and went by those leaders. ARCADIA QUEEN just struggled to quicken chasing her.  Staying at 1400m second-up, ARCADIA QUEEN charged late recording a 33.08/ 11.20 last 600m/ 200m.


BONVICINI went through two-off the inside (was tight/ winner had full momentum) and battled strongly all way to the line fresh (home 11.36 - Winner 11.32).


SHE SHAO FLY keeps racing well, she stayed hard on inside rail (doubt A-ground) yet still ran 4th.


SAVATIANO was the disappointment.  She has always been this way (in that - she doesn’t always ‘’turn up’’).


The race time was 1-22.84 which is just a tick below class average. 
 


The Exford Plate was Race 2 and CROSSHAVEN sat on leader BARTLEY and they got away straightening and ran 1-2.


Speed was 49.01 1st-800m or around 1L above class average yet they have run home 33.66 (+1.4L) and 1-22.67 overall (+2.3L) - so the race has rated well.


CHERRY TORTONI made a terrific return given the race-shape with 58kg running on hard into third (home 33.4/ 11.36. CROWN MINT ran 4th and actually went 0.10 quicker than ‘CHERRY’ over the last 200m, racing tight 1-off the fence 200m out. Good run!



Flemington Forgive File

  • DOUBLE YOU TEE (bad check 300m/ race over),
  • MORE THAN EVER (no luck key stage),
  • IMMORTAL LOVE (too firm? Vetted clear but too bad to be true!),
  • STREET ICON (stayed rail/ worst ground then tightened up badly),
  • FIDELIA (lame),
  • SHROUDED IN MIST (wide),
  • MANTASTIC (ran on well in worst ground),
  • AKTAU (wide all way),
  • GOOD IDEA (worked early/ held on well),
  • OCEANEX (back/ wide/ on-pace race mostly),
  • ADELAIDE ACE (back/ wide/ wider / good),
  • TSHAHITSI (wide/ rider thought amiss),
  • RUSSIAN CAMELOT (wide/ excellent),
  • VOW AND DECLARE (wide/ tempo against/ good),
  • KINGS WILL DREAM (drew bad/ restrained/ 2nd-fastest last 200m),
  • PRINCESS JENNI (way back / widest/ good last 600m split/ ran well also),
  • MIAMI BOUND (bad check early),
  • ANNAVISTO (lays-out/ lost spot/ didn't handle straight/ came again late!!).

 

 

Rosehill Review

In Sydney it was ROSEHILL and the track went from SOFT-5 to GOOD-4 (upgraded Race 3) with the rail out 6m.


There was no real bias but most avoided the inside rail in the home straight. Great racing! 

Well, this Run To The Roses was mouth-watering pre-race and what a race to watch...


FARNAN scorched out to lead and recorded a 34.21 1st-600m which, was definitely fast, but not as ‘’suicidal’’ as it looked. The greater problem for the horse was his inability to relax and rider Hugh Bowman conformed this post-race.


That 1st-600m was 5.7L above G2 3yo average and winner ROTHFIRE had the slipstream run relishing the hot tempo he took over and broke clear stopping the clock in a sizzling 1-8.52 which was just 0.13 off the track record. He is a new season 3YO on a track that was only upgraded at Race 3! The ability of these 3yo’s to still run +1L versus class average last 600m, despite the fierce tempo is obviously exceptional, and, also obviously, is what created the very fast time, some +6.6L faster than class average and 13L above all averages.


OLE KIRK was slow out and still well back turning being saved for one run. He was still 4 to 5L off Rothfire straightening and ran him to 1.5L recording a brilliant 33.06 (clear days fastest)/ 11.32 last 600m/ 200m off that hot speed.  He ran by NORTH PACIFIC (worth noting his last 600m/ 200m splits were near identical to the winners) but he was back 100m in trip and was rock solid/good.


PELTZER held on OK for fourth.


Both MAMARAGAN and KING’S LEGACY were run off their feet over 1200m at this speed.


KING’S LEGACY did warm up nicely late, in fact his 11.48 last 200m was bettered only by Ole Kirk. 

So, how does this compare to 2019 Run To Roses?


We know last year’s 3yo crop were exceptional (BIVOUAC beat Everest winner YES YES YES and EXCEEDANCE was third).  On a 'faster' track last year they went 35.61 1st-600m (some 8L slower) and ran 1-8.72 overall (0.2 slower). 
 


The Sheraco Stakes was Race 8 and HAUT BRION HER returned with an excellent win!


She drew awkwardly but went forward quickly to offset this, despite tracking a very strong speed she was 'bolting' and cruised up outside the leader before breaking clear, running 1-9.05 which was 0.53 (say 3L) slower than Rothfire earlier but still, very slick.  In fact said overall time was +2.7L versus G2 F&M class average and +10L versus all averages.


I referenced that early speed as strong, well, they went 34.47 1st-600m so 'only' 0.26 slower than Farnan and +4L versus the class average.


What adds more merit to the win was 2nd, 3rd and 4th were all run-on horses here.


JEN RULES stayed near the inside but off the rail and attacked the line getting within 0.8L of the winner (last 3 x 200m split rankings: 2nd / 6th/ 5th).


SEASONS was tightened at the 200m then also charged (home 5th/ 3rd/ 7th) with EVALINA (tardy/ eases wider straight/ very good!) home 3rd/ 1st/ 4th.


SUBPOENAED was race-fastest home from way back and her 11.22 home was recorded despite racing in the inferior part of the track.


FLIT and OUTBACK BARBIE were 2nd and 3rd-fastest last 200m splits respectively here. 
 


The Dulcify Quality was Race 5 and this MO’UNGA is a good horse make no mistake! Went back early off good speed (+4L early) then made ground, forced clear and then was totally dominant over his last 100m. In fact, his 11.50 last 200m split was over 2L faster than anything else in the race and his last 600m of 34.44 was 0.6 faster than anything else here.


GLOBAL QUEST was 1st-up and made a good return.  He had his chance sure, and was no match at all late, but had 57kg and yeah, will be fitter.


JET PROPULSION is on the upward spiral also.  He held third from EASY CAMPESE who was 2nd-fastest last 200m here despite staying on the slower inside rail. Outside of the winner, there was 0.7L here second to sixth which says plenty I think.


The race time was 1-28.42 which is surprisingly 1.4L below class average, despite that good speed.


 

FITEUSE is a ripper also. She won Race 4 coming from the back with her 58kg. What adds merit to the win (in addition to the fact she did it giving weight to some quality males) was the lead-speed here of 29.69 was around 2.8L below class average yet, she ran them down! Her 33.48 last 600m was some 9L above all averages.


HILO was also terrific for his first-up run.  He was back near the winner then went through a tight gap and rushed home 33.44/ 11.08 (his last 200m split was 2/100ths faster than Fiteuse’s).


MASKED CRUSADER was never on the track and ran enormous to still loom to win.


The race time was 1-3.69 for 1100m which is 0.6L below class average. 




WILD PLANET won the G2 Theo Marks sitting behind a moderate -2.1L (class average) tempo.  He worked clear and ran down FUNSTAR with a race-fastest 11.08. This split was also equal second-fastest all-day (with HILO) and his overall time 1-15.73 was -2.2L versus the class average.


FUNSTAR was wide too soon in an ideal world and winner just had the last crack.


RANIER went back, came to the outside and ran home 11.20 (2nd-fastest race) getting third over SPECIAL REWARD (tight key stage/ probably clear in time?).


DUCA VALENTINOIS worked to the line nicely also. 



 

Rosehill Forgive File

  • ETHERIDGE (took off mid-race),
  • DULETTE (bled),
  • YULONG BASE (wide/ respiratory issue),
  • HARBOURING (wide),
  • VEGAS JEWEL (lame),
  • YONKERS (too far back/ 10/.94 home was easy fastest),
  • ZACADA (pulled stupidly),
  • AKARI (needed more room),
  • GOLDFINCH (3-wide on-speed),
  • OVERLORD (slow out/ on heels mid race/ nuffy),
  • FARNAN (went too hard),
  • CRACK ON CRACK ON (wide/ hung),
  • SUBPOENAED (ran on well in worst ground),
  • FLIT (back/ tight),
  • MIZZY (slow recovery),
  • SHOUT THE BAR (wide),
  • ENTENTE (lost spot key stage/ race-fastest home/ ran well),
  • LAURE ME IN (covered ground/ ran well),
  • AMITTO (limited room/ ran well also),
  • CISCO BAY (wide run). 




- Gator