VRC Oaks Tips and Best Bets 03/11/22

The Group 1 VRC Oaks highlights the 3rd day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival, as the 3YO fillies stake their claim over the gruelling 2500m event.

The market is led by the talented She's Extreme who on paper looks a class above.

She has come a long way from her first run as a 2YO at Randwick and has been a shining light in her age group.

However, two questions remain, Will she be able to see the trip out? Will she be able to handle the Melbourne way of racing?

If you answered yes to both questions then the $2.70 on offer looks great value to the eye.

 

Track Assessment

There is a chance of light showers on Thursday and the early rating for Oaks Day is Soft 7. With the drainage Flemington holds I see this improving to a Soft 6 if not better as the day progresses.

The rail moves out 5m which will put runners on speed right in the fast lanes turning for home.

By Race 8 the inside will be chopping up, creating an interesting dynamic of runners coming very wide in the straight.

 

Flemington Race 8 - VRC OAKS 2500m (Group 1, 3yo Fillies)

The Map 

This race is set to be run at a crawling tempo.

Like she has done all prep, look for Pavitra (10) to burn across to take up the running.

From the soft draw, She's Extreme (1) will punch up and hold the leaders' back. Zennzella (6) will also push forward but might get caught facing the breeze the whole 2500m.

I have As Time Goes By (5) and Foxy Cleopatra (9) being further forward than their past runs landing three pairs back.

Let'sbefrankbaby (3) will be joined by Albanian Icon (2) in a midfield position with cover.

Of the fancied chances, Queen Air (7) and Renaissance Women (8) will drift back and need booming runs to be in the finish.

 

The Favourite 

She's Extreme ($2.50) only needs to be seeing out the 2500m to be winning this race.

She maps a treat, meets an average VRC Oaks field and strikes a wet track where she excels.

Tommy Berry has made the trip down to Melbourne to ride and has a great relationship with her.

The intent from the barriers will be key, but if he can land her behind the pace maker it might be over in the first 200m.

 

Analysis and Tips 

No surprises here, She's Extreme goes on top.

I have no doubts she will strongly see out the distance and her breeding pedigree suggests the same.

Her mother Keysbrook was placed in Group 2 and Group 3 company in WA over 2400m. She clearly has the talent to better her mother's performances.

The $2.70 on offer is a price I am happy to take and think she starts shorter come race day.

 

Pavitra would be lucky to have half the class of She's Extreme but makes up for it with heart and determination. 

She is a ball of muscle this filly and looks set to run the race of her life from out in front.

Don't be surprised if some of these flashy types loom up on her outside and crumble under pressure while she keeps finding to the line.

 

If the inside is crumbling away as the day progresses, then the backmarkers are brought right into contention.Renaissance Women is who'd I want to be with.

She was brilliant two starts back at Caulfield and loves the Melbourne way of racing.

She did finish a few lengths off She's Extreme in the Spring Champion Stakes but the extra 500m will give her a chance of turning the tables.

 

Let'sbefrankbaby can add some value to your exotics and she has a brilliant breeding pedigree for a staying race.

 

1st She's Extreme

2nd Pavitra

3rd Renaissance Women

4th Let'sbefrankbaby