Speed Rating a Horse Race

It's one of the most logical arguments in horse racing. The faster a horse runs over a given distance, the better it's chances of winning. As easy as it sounds however, the challenge for punters is far more complex than collecting race times and comparing them amongst the runners in a race. We look at the science behind speed ratings and look at two of the most successful time ratings experts in the history of thoroughbred racing.

Speed Rating Challenges

There are two key challenges which punters face when attempting to produce time ratings:

• accessing quality sectional data for a horse's past runs; and then
• normalising the race times to account for the multitude of factors that influence speed for any given race track on any given day.

Some of the factors impacting a horse's speed, and consequently the time that they run in a race include:

• Track condition;
• Wind speed and direction (head wind versus tail wind can produce significant time differentials);
• Horse development (how much has the horse improved since it ran that time?);
• Distance (how to measure the relative time for a slightly longer or shorter distance?); and
• Weight.

There are many more factors that can be added to this list like interference and barrier impact to name a few.

So how does the average punter get hold of each horse's race times for past runs and then make an 'apples' with 'apples' comparison?

 

Speed Data

To rate the speed of a horse you need speed data for each runner's past starts. In Australia, Vince Accardi's Daily Sectionals service is one of the most respected sources of racing sectional data in the country. His clients include the Racing Victoria Stewards and some of the biggest professional punters in the land. Respect for the German born form analyst has grown steadily over his 30 year career. One of the best demonstrations of his skill came in 2015 when he declared the then two-year-old Vancouver all but a certainty in the Golden Slipper despite drawing one of the widest gates in the race.

After analysing his time-rating data for the Slipper he made what was considered at the time a very brave statement about Vancouver's ability and chances in the showcase event.

Without going deep into the numbers world, he (Vancouver) has basically run figures that would see him finish three lengths off Terravista’s career-best performance.

This is the best Slipper lead-up I’ve ever seen.”

As we now know, Vancouver tracked three-wide for the entire journey from barrier 16 and was too good in the straight, claiming victory by three-quarters of a length.

 

Time Rating Punting Success Stories

Vince Accardi

Accardi's sectional rating services gives punters the key data that they need to produce their own "apples" with "apples" time-form comparisons. Data for each race includes:

• weather;
• wind direction and strength;
• track rating;
• irrigation; and
• rainfall.

The data includes a detailed cut of sectional data, which is critical for evaluating a horse's relative speed. In easy to read tables Accardi's analysis highlights..

• the actual time clocked which is sometimes different to actual official published results;
• sectional times - the winner's first 400m time and late sectionals i.e. times for final sections of the race including 1200m, 1000m, 800m, 600m, 400m, 200m and 100m; and
• the leader's first 400m time and late sectionals at each particular sectional mark - indicating the pace of the race.

Accardi also provides an Incremental Velocity Rating (IVR), which provides a benchmark for each runner's individual performance against other runner's on the day. Punters use a horse's IVR report history to develop comparisons against other horses racing on the day. The IVR supports easier comparisons against horses they meet in their next race.

While Vince's personal betting success is unknown, he has built a solid reputation amongst the racing public on the back of his accurate predictions and comments published in the media.

Andrew Beyer

Once an American English Literature student, Andrew Beyer was one of the pioneers of speed ratings. Beyer changed the way handicappers and form analysts looked at horse racing after he decided to travel to Elmont New York for the Belmont Stakes rather than sit his final university exam.

Beyer revolutionised time-form by taking raw race time data as a key input and turning it into normalised speed ratings which considered key factors that can impact a horse's sectionals in a race. These factors included the track, track condition, distance and weight amongst others.

 

Andrew Beyer's approach to normalising race times

Beyer went on to further develop his speed ratings by applying the numbers to a secondary analysis referred to in Australia as speed mapping. Beyer did this by applying the relative horse speeds across different sections of the race to develop an accurate picture of where horses were likely to position in the running and at the crucial final stages of the race. Beyer considered factors like track bias and barrier draws in this secondary part of the analysis to achieve an accurate speed map and preferred selections.

One of the key areas where Beyer often found the biggest value from his speed ratings analysis was where horses with a strong speed rating and a low-risk speed map were rising in class.

Beyer's speed rating became so popular, that the United States Daily Racing Form service incorporated it into its race fields publications in 1992 while handicappers across America moved away from traditional class ratings to also use Beyer's speed ratings.

Mike Steward