Rosehill Tips and best bets for The Four Pillars 2023

It always promised to be a wide-open race, but the feature $500k Four Pillars Midway might just be the most open market in Rosehill history.

With a jam-packed field of 20 to go around and little separating many of them, the early betting had the first line at a whopping $10.00!

So the battle is on to identify what will prove massive early value and zero in on certain runners who will tumble in from double figures the closer we get to the jump.

One thing's for sure.

Over the tricky 1500m middle distance, and with many of those better-credential runners drawn wide apart from inside to out, the first 400m could be like finding seats at a football grand final.

Certainly, one runner representing terrific early value was Kembla-based five-year-old Satness ($10.00) who drew low and has only missed a place once in his last five outings.

This included a narrow Midway BM72 win at Randwick in mid-September.

Hard fit and drawn to get a lovely camp on speed, Satness must jump shorter.

A similar story can be said for progressive four-year-old Backrower ($10.00) who draws his best gate fifth-up this prep and looms to peak big time.

Simply, it might be a whole lot harder finding the Four Pillars winner than it will be the First Four using any number of value-priced runners.

All I'll say is that exotic bets might just become betting's Pillar of Society.

 

 

Track Conditions:

Back on Sydney's most reliable surface, a Good 4 is the likely starting point after a lead-in 48 hours of dry and warm weather.

That said, some rain is forecast on the day, so we may slip back into Soft 5 range as the meeting unfolds.

However, it shouldn't have any real effect on runners who don't want the sting out of the surface.

 

The Speed Map:

In most cases, on-speed or stalking within two lengths are the best "zones" at Rosehill.

The field size however changes things up, so you can expect the off-speed pattern to slowly come into play as the meeting unfolds.

 

 

The Favourite:

This far out from the jump, fair to say there isn't one, with nothing priced under $9.50.

I'll be surprised if Backrower doesn't emerge from the market pack and go off as the one to beat.

 

Neil's Best Bet:

There's a sense of timing here with the Astern four-year-old Backrower after four runs back, even though the exposed form doesn't look overly flash.

He's never had much luck from the gate this prep, but this time he threatens to land in a much smoother position a few lengths off the speed.

I like the booking of Tom Sherry to ride and he'll be suited to a more truly run race with the huge field.

 

The Dangers:

Where do we start?

Satness must be a threat from a low draw, as is tough mare Burning Need ($13.00).

You can make strong cases too for Oakfield Waratah ($13.00) who peaks third-up, with a 3kg claimer off-setting the big weight. Also progressive four-year-old Epicus ($18.00) who draws wide, but won his only previous start over this distance.

 

Neil's Top Four:

1. BACKROWER

2. Satness

3. Oakfield Waratah

4. Epicus