Randwick Tips for Verry Elleegant Stakes 2024

With outstanding mare Fangirl so cramped in early markets, the ultimate exotic value must surely revolve around a super tough 8YO with a terrific 33 percent win rate from 40 starts.

Naturally dual Group 1 winner Think It Over will have to produce a career best second-up run to bring Fangirl down, but the Quinella is a very good value play.

Even allowing for the arrogant ease of Fangirl's first-up win, coming from near last in the Group 2 Apollo Stakes over 1400m, she must be under the odds here.

Still the overwhelming one to beat, her second-up form comes off a bit compared to her outstanding fresh figures. I had her marked at $1.80, certainly not the red-hot $1.50 or shorter currently available in fixed odds market.

Of course, under the weight-for-age conditions, and on a track she adores, it's nearly impossible to tip against Fangirl.

The Randwick 1600m course can tend to produce more tactical races with 'cat-and-mouse' moves far out from home. With an outside draw, Fangirl will again slide well back and be asked to round them all up over the final 500m.

A likely moderate tempo must play into the hands of Think It Over rolling forward from an ideal gate, and remember he boasts a superb nine wins from 24 outings at the track.

 

 

Randwick Race 7 - Verry Elleegant Stakes (Group 1, 1600m)

Track Conditions

With a few scattered showers and plenty of wind in the lead-up, the rating will hover between Good 4 and Soft 5 by the start of the meeting

 

See who Mick Gannon & Dean Watling like in the second G1 at Randwick 

 

The Speed Map

The rail is back in the True position as it should be for a dual Group 1 card, having been out 4m for the meeting a fortnight ago.

Given the lead up weather, I expect on or near the speed to dominate for much of the day before those from well off the pace start to get into the action, especially if late showers arrive.

 

The Favourite

It's all about the price you want to heave onto Fangirl.

On class and sectional brilliance alone, anything from $1.75 to $1.85 is probably a very sound and safe bet.

Anything from $1.50 to $1.60 may be fraught with danger if the tactical tempo doesn't go her way.

 

 

Neil's Best Bet

I'm more than willing to invest in Think It Over second-up running the Quinella with the hot mare.

 

The Dangers

Iron-like eight-year-old Think It Over ($9.50) is terrific each-way value getting to the mile second-up in a race more suited to those on or nearer the speed.

Yes Fangirl gave him windburn at the furlong in the Apollo, but he desperately needed the run, and he did beat the mare over the same track and trip last spring.

And I wouldn't rule out the old timer Cascadian ($18.00) running into a place second-up either.

Naturally resuming stayer Just Fine ($7.00) is classy and a big watch; but under the odds for me.

 

Neil's Top Four

1. FANGIRL

2. Think It Over (Quinella in Play)

3. Cascadian

4. Just Fine

 

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