Nic Ashman Horse Racing Tips for Memsie Stakes 2/9/23

A tricky barrier draw for the two favourites in Saturday’s Memsie Stakes has opened the Group 1 contest up.

Mr Brightside is looking to become the first horse since Regal Roller in 2004 to win the PB Lawrence – Memsie Stakes double in the same year.

He was the $3 favourite in All-In markets on Monday, but drew gate 15 and is now second elect at $3.50 behind the Peter Moody-trained I Wish I Win.

 

Moody’s star resumed from a spell having taken out the TJ Smith Stakes at his most recent run.

His ratings are superior to his rivals in the Memsie but like Mr Brightside, didn’t fair well at the barrier draw.

I Wish I Win jumps from barrier 1, which for a horse that lacks early speed, can be disastrous as they often get buried away on the rail.

But a look at barrier history shows soft gates are advantaged in the Memsie Stakes.

The race was first run on September 2, 1899 so it’ll be exactly 124 years to the day when they line up this weekend.

Only one horse over the past two decades, King’s Rose in 2011, has jumped from a double digit barrier and won the Memsie Stakes.

 

It’s also been a good race for favourites with I Wish I Win looking to become the 12^th favourite in 20 years to win.

Also in his favour is that six of the last 10 winners have been first-up from a spell.

In fact, only one horse over the past decade, Scales Of Justice, has been deeper than second-up in a prep before winning a Memsie.

Lindsay Smith’s on-pacer was third-up when he won in 2018.

 

Those in the corner of Mr Brightside for the 2023 Cox Plate prick your ears; only three horses this century have completed the Memsie Stakes / Cox Plate double:

• Sunline [2001]
• Makybe Diva [2005]
• So You Think [2010].

 

Trackwalker Info

Relatively even across, with lanes 1,2 marginally inferior but the ground horses save by using them will offset this.

We’d suggest the best play is stalking the speed, being forward of midfield and then chiming in 3-6 horses off the inside rail. 

 

Speedmap

 

Selections: 2023 Memsie Stakes

OSIPENKO

Produced the 8^th fastest last 400m of the day when resuming in the Winx Stakes on a Soft 6.

Much better on dry ground and given he’s an entire, this race is worth a huge amount to his value.

Suspect he’s forward enough to be winning this and he ran a cracking race here when 2^nd in the Caulfield Guineas.

 

NONCONFORMIST

His rating first-up in the autumn winning the Blamey Stakes was superb and good enough to be competitive in this.

The query is 1400m as the Blamey is over 1600m but when they’re $81 and $13 the place you can afford to have a small query.

He loves Caulfield, has a genuine turn of foot and residual fitness from a Brisbane winter campaign.

Ticks plenty of boxes!