Moonee Valley Tips for William Reid 2024

The Kiwi champion mare ‘Imperatriz’ was bowled over last start in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap to end her 6 race winning streak.

Does she bounce back after dropping down to a more comfortable 56.5kg?

3yo Colt ‘Cylinder’ was able to spoil the party last start and notch up his first career Group 1 victory.

Will the son of Exceed And Excel still stand a chance despite going up 4.5kg in the weights?

South Australian and last start Oakleigh Plate winner ‘Queman’ and runner-up ‘Hypothetical’ both come into the William Reid at massive odds.

The Oakleigh Plate form looks like it could stack up this year and it adds another intriguing layer to the contest.

Let’s answer a few of these questions and find not only the winner, but a couple of betting prospects.

 

 

Check out the Dean and Mick's thoughts on the Golden Slipper

 

Moonee Valley Race 8 - William Reid Stakes (1200m)

Track Conditions

The track is rated as a Good 4 and will remain that way come start time with clear weather forecast.

The running rail is in the True position and as is generally the case at Moonee Valley, it will be ideal to either be up on-pace or drawn an inside barrier.

 

Speed Map

It should be a good charge for the front early but I'm expecting Hypothetical (6) to take up his customary role as the pacemaker.

I Am Me (2) will use that good barrier to land just behind the pace, while Queen Of The Ball (7) will place herself outside the leader.

The Astrologist (9) will look to come over from the wide draw but may get forced to work overtime to find a spot in running.

Imperatriz (10) has settled towards the speed in her last few starts but may struggle to find a spot in running if The Astrologist does not press forward to the front.

Fellow top chances Bella Nipotina (3) and last start Newmarket Handicap winner Cylinder (1), will be settling around midfield but may need luck from the inside draws.

Overall it should just be an evenly run tempo for this 1200m contest.

 

 

The Favourite

It was probably one of the more impressive defeats you can see.

The champion 5yo New Zealand mare Imperatriz was enormous running 2^nd in the Newmarket Handicap last start with 58kg on her back.

She now comes back to her customary 56.5kg weight and meets her rivals far better in the weights than what she did in the Newmarket.

With the tricky draw she will need to rely on The Astrologist to roll forward to settle on the pace. Otherwise, she will drop back to avoid racing wide without cover.

She has won in a variety of different ways at the Valley though.

Is she a betting prospect? No. Never at that price.

Does she win? It's hard to see her getting rolled.

 

 

Tips

I don’t see Imperatriz losing here.

She gets in so well at the weights in comparison to the Newmarket and she can overturn that margin on Cylinder.

A perfect four from four at the Valley and has won those races in numerous different ways.

 

A top notch betting prospect in the race is Hypothetical.

While he goes up in the weights from his last start 2^nd placing in the Oakleigh Plate, he will be up on-pace from the good draw and has proven tough to get past.

The track conditions will suit him well and he won't cop too much pressure in the lead.

It will be well worth having a small win bet and a large place bet on this 5yo mare from the Anthony & Sam Freedman stable.

 

I Am Me flies fresh (3 wins from 4 first-up) and is one to keep an eye on here.

Gets the run of the race from barrier 2, in behind the speed and certainly should be in the finish.

 

Bella Nipotina never runs a bad race, especially at the Valley.

She has only ever missed a placing once at this track from 9 starts and has won a Manikato Stakes preciously.

Looks set for a big run once again.

 

1^st Imperatriz

2^nd Hypothetical

3^rd I Am Me

4^th Bella Nipotina

 

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.