Moonee Valley Horse Racing Tips for William Reid 2023

There are not many better sights than Group 1 racing on a Friday night at The Valley.

We have seen plenty of champions win the William Reid Stakes in the past including Black Caviar, Turffontein, Apache Cat, Vo Rogue and Manikato to name a few.

On Friday night we will see another William Reid Stakes winner crowned and another potential sprinting champion of the turf.

After a few arguably weak fields in recent times, this years' race has attracted a stellar crop with international runners making the trip to try and pocket the $600,000 for winning.

This years William Reid Stakes is wide open in the betting market and that only heightens the excitement with plenty of value on offer.

 

Track Conditions

The track is currently rated as a Good 4 and despite a bit of rain forecasted on the day, there won't be enough to force a surface downgrade.

As often is the case at Moonee Valley, it is highly favourable to be drawn inside-middle barriers and be midfield or better in the running.

Barriers 1 and 2 have comfortably the highest strike rate and are profitable barriers to be backing horses from.

 

Race 7 – Group 1 William Reid Stakes (1200m) @ 21:15

 

The Map

In The Congo will fire out from barrier 1 and take up the front running, with Jigsaw rushing across from barrier 5 to sit outside of the lead.

Front Page should be able to follow Jigsaw across from barrier 8 but does face a tricky map if the gap does not open up to slot in behind the pace.

New Zealander Babylon Berlin should get the run in behind the pace on the rails from barrier 2.

Bella Nipotina and Paulele are two horses who generally prefer to be prominent in their runs, but can see them being stranded out 3 and 4-wide without cover.

Chain Of Lightning can settle just off-pace from barrier 3 as well as Roch ‘n’ Horse from barrier 9 and the favourite Imperatiz.

U.K import A Case Of You, now with the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr stable, has shown pace in jump outs leading in but faces a tough task from the tricky draw.

He will be taken back and settle at the rear along with previous winner Masked Crusader, September Run, 3yo filly Benedetta and King Of Sparta.

 

The Favourite

After being pipped in the dying stages by ‘Artorius’ in the Canterbury Stakes, the New Zealand 4yo mare Imperatriz is looking to make it her fifth Group 1 victory and her first in Australia with a win here.

She rarely gets beaten on dry tracks where she has had ten wins from twelve starts and also flies over the 1200m. This is a distance she has 4 wins from her 6 starts over.

New Zealand champion jockey Opie Bosson flies over to Australia to take the ride on a horse he has saluted on six times from eight rides.

She looks to get the right run and will be in the right position in running to be a winning hope.

Being at Moonee Valley for the first time is the only real query about her winning chances.

 

History/Key Formlines

• In the last 15 years, four favourites have won the William Reid Stakes. Three of them at an odds-on quote and the other $2.10.
• There have only been four winners of this race over the last 30 years to be drawn in barriers 10+.
• Fillies & mares have won 15 of the last 31 William Reid Stakes
• 3yos also have a strong record in this race with 13 of the past 37 winners.
• The Lightning Stakes and Newmarket Handicap are the key lead-up races to the William Reid Stakes with all bar 5 winners since 2008 having come through those formlines.
• Unsurprisingly, the barriers 1 and 2 are the most successful barriers in this race (with barrier 2 having had 5 winners in the last 15 years), as is generally the case at the racecourse in general.
• Since 2010, 7 William Reid Stakes winners have won when third-up in their preparations (only 3 runners in this year's field are coming into this third-up).

 

Free Horse Racing Tips

I strongly believe the William Reid Stakes will be heading back to New Zealand. However, it will be with the lesser fancied of the two NZ horses in the market, Babylon Berlin.

While history generally suggests you want to be early in your preparation (particularly third-up) and coming through the Newmarket and/or Lightning Stakes, this year looks very likely that trend will be broken.

She is a high-class mare, having only been beaten by favourite in this race Imperatriz and narrowly by Levante, who ran 5^th in the George Ryder last Saturday.

She came out and dominated at Group 3 level last start to win by 7 lengths over the 1200m.

She draws the gun barrier in barrier 2 and gets top jockey Blake Shinn aboard for the ride. Blake has the highest winning strike rate at Moonee Valley of any jockey at the meeting with 21.4%.

She should be up on-pace with In The Congo, will appreciate the short straight of Moonee Valley and will prove awfully hard to run down.

 

Fellow New Zealander, and favourite in the race, Imperatriz will be incredibly tough to deny here like she was last start in the Canterbury Stakes.

She has a slightly tricky draw to overcome with pace inside but jockey Opie Bosson in the saddle he can wave his magic to find a spot in the running line.

If she gets the right run, her class with prevail with her elite record over 1200m and on a dry track.

 

I am expecting Bella Nipotina to put in an improved effort after her disappointing run in the Newmarket last start.

She was superb at the start prior in the Lightning Stakes finishing just off ‘Coolangatta’ and ‘I Wish I Win’.

Comes in third-up (generally the key to being a top winning hope in this race historically) and only has to navigate the wide barrier to be a top chance here.

 

King Of Sparta will be needing a bit of luck but will come home with a wet sail late in the race.

 

1^st Babylon Berlin

2^nd Imperatriz

3^rd Bella Nipotina

4^th King Of Sparta

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