Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 6/6/26

This week we have identified two high risk favourites who both face significant challenges and appear artificially compressed in betting markets due to recent hype.

At Flemington, a last start winner steps into Benchmark 84 grade for the first time where a much deeper field should expose some vulnerabilities.

At Eagle Farm, the track profile and likely race shape suggest a two year old filly with a passive rider engaged could be set a very difficult task.

 

 

Saturday Lays of the Day 6/6/26

Flemington Race 5 #4 First Chorus $2.60

She is now well exposed to the market following an impressive first up win at Caulfield where conditions played perfectly into her hands.

The wet track and preferred wider lanes suited her ideally on that occasion. This setup looks very different at Flemington and the market appears guilty of overreacting to the most recent performance.

She now rises sharply to Benchmark 84 grade for the first time and faces a much deeper field than what she encountered last start.

There are still question marks around whether she can reproduce that performance against stronger opposition, especially given she remains untested at this level.

If the track dries out further, I expect support to come against her late in betting.

From the draw and expected settling position, she risks being buried back in traffic and may not receive the same favours.

Avoid.

 

Eagle Farm Race 4 #9 Shintono $2.60

Happy to oppose this travelling filly from the McEvoy yard, as these interstate runners can often become overbet when taking on well placed locals.

The barrier draw creates a significant concern.

From gate two, she risks settling further back than ideal and historically runners trapped inside at Eagle Farm can face difficulties when the pattern develops away from the rail.

Jamie Melham’s riding style also adds another layer of concern, with the map suggesting she may concede important early position.

The market appears heavily anchored to the I Am Dirty form reference, however I am not convinced that form line deserves the level of respect currently being given.

There are other runners arriving through stronger races and with more favourable setups.

Expect professional money to oppose her late, with speed map concerns likely to push models strongly against her profile.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.