Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 6/4/24
Storms on and off the track
GettyTagged: James Beeson
This week we focus on two key runners set to hit the track on Day 1 of The Championships at Royal Randwick. These overhyped fancies face significant challenges and currently represent poor value in betting.
In the Adrian Knox Stakes over 2000m, a Melbourne raider faces the smart Sydney 3yo fillies for the first time.
She looks over-bet due to the last start win and high-profile stable.
While later in the day the Golden Slipper favourite who failed in that race, is attempting to make amends in the Sires Produce, where he is now over the top and on the way down.
Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.
Jimmy Beeson nailed his Golden Slipper prediction with Storm Boy being rolled.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Horse Racing Lays on Saturday
Randwick Race 4 #1 Autumn Angel $3.00
She won well last start at Flemington over 1600m and is likely to be over-bet due to this recency bias and high-profile stable.
She was blessed in-run last start when travelling midfield with cover before running home with ease. With more pressure here and now out to 2000m I expect she may struggle to be strong late.
This field has plenty of depth and is a genuine class rise on what she has faced recently in Melbourne, where the 3yo filly ranks appear much weaker.
With Zahra booked and Moody listed in the race book the weight of recreational money will be strong, with bookmakers likely to keep this runner artificially short in betting all week!
Avoid.
Randwick Race 6 #1 Storm Boy $2.60
Has been up and in work for a long time now and is likely to have been set to peak in the Golden Slipper, with that “Grand Final” having been run 2 weeks ago.
I’d suspect the horse is close to being cooked now and is a significant risk of racing flat in this race, where I’d much prefer to be with a number of others here at the bigger prices.
Although they did win the race with another runner, the stable were bitterly disappointed not to achieve the mammoth Golden Slipper bonus last start and are likely to have poured in the bulk of trackwork effort during that week, in an all-out effort to secure the big money.
He missed the start last time out and had to be hunted up aggressively along the inside in an attempt to hold a position.
I’m anticipating this may have taken plenty out of the horse and he is now “over the top”.
Lay.
Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.
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