Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 5/4/25

This week we head to Randwick for a bumper card of Group 1 racing, where we’ve identified two favourites that appear over-bet by the market.

Early in the day, a hype horse may face speed map issues due to his “get-back” racing pattern, while the leaders may be off and gone before he even gets into gear.

Meanwhile in the feature Group 1 for the two-year-olds, the favourite looks a high risk of being a tired horse at this stage of his preparation and shapes as a strong lay under the circumstances.

Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.

  

 

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Randwick Race 4 #2 Swiftfalcon $1.85

I’m happy to oppose the warm favourite in the Carbine Club Stakes.

Despite finding a slightly weaker race, he still faces the task of running down an up-and-comer in Evaporate.

Evaporate is expected to go forward and race near the speed, which will leave Swiftfalcon needing to do all the chasing.

A scenario not reflected fairly in the current price.

His get-back pattern makes him vulnerable here, especially around Randwick’s testing circuit where it’s not uncommon for runners up front to be off and gone while the backmarkers are still winding up.

The hype around Swiftfalcon has been relentless all prep and the market has now taken it too far. He is severely over-bet.

I expect him to be the “flashing light” runner once again, closing late after it’s all been run and won.

Avoid.

 

Randwick Race 6 #2 Wodeton $2.70

This looks like a classic afterthought, with connections chasing a Group 1 win to enhance his stallion prospects.

He’s been up a long time now and each start carries more risk of a form drop-off as the prep catches up with him.

This is shaping up to be a brutally run race with Bellazaine likely to set a strong tempo, meaning Wodeton will need to chase from a long way out.

The step up in distance and the testing Randwick rise will only magnify any fatigue setting in late.

I’d much rather be with horses that have been specifically set for this race, many of whom have skipped the Golden Slipper and arrive here with plenty left in the tank.

Lay.

 

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.