Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 3/8/24

We went bang-bang last week, knocking off two highly fancied Godolphin runners at Randwick.

This week we focus on two Rosehill runners who both arrive first-up, on what is likely to be a testing rain-affected surface in Western Sydney on Saturday.

Our first lay selection will encounter pressure from the outside draws, which could be telling late.

Whilst later in the day a sprinter may find herself in the wrong part of the track and in an unfavourable position, with the inside sections likely to have “chopped out” at this stage in the card.

 

 

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Rosehill Race 4 #11 Intervarsity $2.40

She appears severely over-bet here, arriving first-up and is likely to be tested by a few of the fit horses on a testing rain-affected track.

The J Mac tax is well and truly in play, as is the high-profile stable and ownership group that has likely tipped her to plenty of big punters.

The low draw (gate 2) will force the rider to hunt up early, as I doubt he will want to be in a worse position than 2-back the rail.

With the highway races typically run at a solid tempo early this means she will need to absorb some pressure from the outside through the first 200m, which could be telling late.

Look for a market drift as we approach start time, and she should start closer to $3 or beyond at the jump.

Avoid.

 

Rosehill Race 7 #9 Spring Lee $3.00

Resumes and faces a tough task against the fit horses.

Although this is over the short course 1100m, in the rain-affected ground it is likely to feel much longer.

With several fit horses in the race, they look much better suited by this set-up than a runner returning on a testing surface.

From gate 3 she is a big chance of being “back and buried” along the rail and from there it may take a mighty effort to extricate and quicken in these conditions.

At this later stage in the day, the track is likely to have chopped out along the inside sections and launching from gate 3 this runner won’t be in the preferred going.

Avoid.

 

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