Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 29/3/25

This week, we’re focusing on two odds-on runners at Rosehill who both shape as excellent risks and are likely to drift in betting as we approach start time.

Midway through the card, a popular Joe Pride runner drops back to Group 2 level, but looked to have every possible chance last start and may still be one run away from his grand final.

Meanwhile, in the feature Vinery Stud Stakes, the raging hot favourite has a number of significant challenges to overcome and looks severely over-bet.

Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.

  

 

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Rosehill Race 4 #1 Ceolwulf $1.70

To my eye, Ceolwulf had every possible chance last start when placing third of 11 in the George Ryder Stakes, finding the best part of the track but still failing to get over the top late.

Yes this is easier on paper dropping back to Group 2 level and the step up to 2000m will suit, but I’m not convinced he’s going as well as last preparation.

The excuses are starting to wear thin.

If he’s being aimed at the King Charles Stakes path, this could well be a tick-over run, with the stable targeting peak performance later during The Championships at Randwick—meaning they’re unlikely to “gas” him here.

The current price looks pure poison, with the market over-reacting to his close-up finish in the Group 1 last start.

Avoid.

 

 

Rosehill Race 6 #1 Treasure the Moment $1.60

Happy to pot the odds-on favourite in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes, as she faces a few key question marks.

This includes the track conditions and with more rain expected, she could be dealing with a bottomless surface for the first time.

The travel from Victoria also brings risk, especially with a stable that rarely travels horses.

The float trip just days prior can take its toll, particularly over longer distances like the 2000m.

There’s no doubt she’s a classy filly, but as this field gets out to a genuine staying trip, others are likely to improve significantly,.

At the current quote, she looks a great risk with plenty of challenges to overcome.

I’d much rather be with a few at bigger odds.

Lay.

 

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.