Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 28/6/25

It was another stress free weekend last Saturday, if you followed our lays.

Both Warnie and Gerringong went under at gross $2 quotes meaning you could put your hard earned on real winning chances.

This week we have identified two over-bet runners at Morphettville, where the poison prices for these popular favourites represent pure madness.

Early in the card, a Team Hayes runner comes up well under the odds, largely due to model players giving too much weight to the stable’s current form.

Later in the day, punters will be lining up to back a horse shooting for a hat-trick.

However, with early pressure expected I believe he will be gassed late and is a strong risk at the current quote.

  

 

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Morphettville Race 3 #5 Romani Ite Domum $2.40

The Hayes stable is flying, but the market is now fully aware of this and may be over-compensating in price as a result.

This horse doesn’t appear to have the early tactical speed required to find a forward position and with several rivals likely to race ahead of him, I expect he will be chasing for most of the trip.

The fact that they are sending him to South Australia could also indicate that he is not up to the higher prizemoney grades in Victoria.

This is always a concern, as it may reflect internal placement rather than form confidence.

First-up, there should be improvement to come and it’s unlikely he is fully wound up for this kick-off run.

Even factoring in the stable’s current strike rate, he looks well under the odds, and a market drift to $3 or better before the jump.

Avoid.

 

Morphettville Race 9 #2 Syncro $2.30

He was a strong winner last start and is now aiming for a hat-trick, which means the recreational money will be flowing and bookmakers will likely keep him artificially short to protect their liability.

However, he now steps up in class again and this is often the point where horses hit their ceiling.

The loss of Todd Pannell is significant and the booking of an apprentice here is a notable downgrade, particularly in a race that requires racecraft under pressure.

Last start he enjoyed every possible favour, controlling the speed with ease and kicking clear without being pressured.

That scenario is unlikely to repeat here.

There is good speed drawn out wide, and if he’s forced to work for the lead or face pressure, he will be a “shot duck” in the final 200 metres.

Lay.

 

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.