Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 25/5/24
Absolutely Poison Odds
GettyTagged: James Beeson, Doomben, Randwick
This week we have identified two favourites that come up poison odds, in races they will be forced to overcome significant challenges.
At Doomben a star 2yo has endured a long campaign, following runs in both the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper.
She is a huge risk of being over the top now and appears severely over-bet by the mug-money.
While at Randwick I'm expecting a Richard and Will Freedman runner to start much longer odds and regress from his first-up run.
He was clearly very forward in condition and set up to win.
Jimmy Beeson continues to correctly highlight the dud favourites in feature races.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Horse Racing Lays on Saturday
Doomben Race 5 #9 Eneeza $2.50
High-class filly who arrives via significant blue chip 2yo events including the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper, where she did have excuses.
However being up for so long brings its challenges and although she did win last start at Randwick, she is a strong risk of being over the top now.
Considering her last performance, where she charged from midfield to win down the long Randwick straight, she may not be as well-suited this time on the tighter Doomben circuit.
Throw in the low draw (barrier 4) and it could get ugly for her.
If she must extricate herself from three-back along the fence, there will be limited opportunities to overtake the leaders over a shorter straight.
She will need plenty of luck with this race-shape and with the market locked onto her class credentials, she looks artificially compressed at the current poison odds.
Avoid.
Randwick Race 2 #1 Navy Blood $2.40
Last start Newcastle winner who is over-bet here after the stable pulled off the first-up betting sting.
They can often regress off the good first-up performance when fully wound up for that run.
Given they are up in grade again here to a deeper race with more talent, it does not setup well at all.
He was slowly away last start and there is a big question mark on his barrier manners.
Missing the start here against the better quality horses will ensure a tough task to run a number of these down.
I expect a significant market drift come start time, where $3+ should be widely available with most operators.
Lay.
Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.
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