Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 25/1/25

This week, we focus on two Sandown favourites who face significant challenges and appear severely over-bet at their current prices.

Midway through the card, a horse that may have been fully prepared to win first-up now arrives second-up and could regress after being specifically set for its fresh assignment last time out.

Later in the day, a runner aiming for four straight wins faces a completely different set-up here, drawn wide and confronted with an unfavourable speed map.

Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.

  

 

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Sandown Race 7 #5 Le Zebra $2.80

It seems likely the stable had this runner fully wound up to perform first-up last start, where early market support and whispers were suggesting he was very forward in condition.

He ran well fresh to place third of 10 at Flemington after being held up mid-race.

However, the market often overreacts to luckless runs and that appears to be the case here, as his run has not gone unnoticed.

The outside draw (gate 10) presents significant challenges.

If they roll the dice to find a midfield position, there is a high chance he could be caught three-wide with no cover or forced to drag back to the rear.

With no form at this track and the tricky draw, professional betting teams are likely to oppose him late in the market.

I expect $3+ to be widely available by start time.

Avoid.

 

Sandown Race 10 #13 New York Lustre $2.45

This runner is aiming for four consecutive wins and is naturally being over-bet due to this factor alone, especially by recreational punters.

While she has the natural speed to position herself close to the pace, the wide draw (gate 12) makes this much more difficult.

They will still attempt to go forward but the result could be unfavourable, as she risks being trapped wide or forced to race back. This is very contrary to her usual pattern.

She also steps up in grade here to Benchmark 73 level, and I believe she has likely reached her ceiling.

At the current price, she appears well under the odds.

Lay.

 

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.