Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 24/8/24

It was another perfect weekend of Saturday lays going 2/2 and bringing down some mug money munchers.

This week we focus on two favourites that appear severely over-bet due to their high-profiles and recency bias of their latest winning runs.

At Randwick, the smart 2yo Sires Produce champion returns as a 3yo in the new season, where a first-up assignment over 1200m may be too short on this occasion.

While at Moonee Valley a gun mare looks vulnerable as she returns, and is forced to take on several horses who may have the fitness edge.

 

 

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Randwick Race 6 #1 Manaal $2.50

Manaal enters this race first-up as a short-priced favourite, largely due to her impressive 2yo performances.

She won the Sires Produce and put up a strong fight against the talented Broadsiding in the Champagne Stakes.

However, her best form seems to be over 1400m, and the 1200m here may prove a bit sharp for her, especially fresh.

With a long Spring campaign likely on the horizon, her connections may not push her too hard early on.

Look for her to do her best work late, possibly flashing home but just missing.

She is classy however the setup is not ideal for her here, and I expect a market drift back towards $3 and beyond.

Lay.

 

Moonee Valley Race 7 #9 See What I See $2.80

Gun mare who is building a long picket fence having won at her past 6 starts.

I feel she is vulnerable here first-up and has the tricky draw in gate 6, where decisions will have to be made in terms of pressing the go button or taking a sit.

She risks being caught wide or getting dragged back, which could pose problems against fitter rivals returning from a spell.

Due to the outstanding record, she will of course be over-bet by the mug money with bookmakers keeping her artificially short throughout betting.

There are a few horses entered here who have already returned that have the fitness edge on her and unless they have poured the work in at home, she could be paddling over the final 50m.

Avoid.

 

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.