Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 2/3/24
Riff Rocket to crash and burn punters
GettyTagged: James Beeson
Beeso is absolutely airborne this Autumn with another perfect 2/2 weekend, including laying Espionage at an opening quote of $2.50.
This week he has found two Flemington runners who both appear to be severely over-bet due to recent heroics.
In Race 7 the favourite has been up for along time now, and should be very close to being “over the top”, with the peak runs likely to be behind him this preparation.
Whilst later in the day a horse now running on hype following the “wow-factor” of the huge first-up win, represents no value at the current compressed price.
He is likely to regress off the fresh performance and looks an excellent risk.
Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.
Jimmy Beeson successfully laid Jimmysstar a fortnight ago at an SP of $1.22
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Horse Racing Lays on Saturday
Flemington Race 2 #7 Aramco $2.50
Is now well exposed to the market following plenty of recent racing, where he has been running well all preparation.
I expect he is now close to being “over the top” and a few of his opposition including Strawberry Rock are profiling to hit their peak run in this race.
He has been up a long time and this run is likely to be an afterthought from the stable, who would have had him prepped and peaked up last start when the money came ($2.40 into $1.90) at Flemington.
When a yard set them up to run well on a particular day (last start), it is hard to extend this peak fitness level by an extra 2 weeks.
He appears an excellent risk here, with plenty of fresh blood on the scene.
Avoid.
Flemington Race 8 #1 Riff Rocket $2.50
Is severely over-bet in this following the first-up demolition job, which I’m convinced was too good to be true!
I suspect the huge first-up win was a significant outlier, and as is often the case with a horse who wins well fresh, they can regress significantly at their next start.
This is a high-quality Group 1 field studded with talent elsewhere and he will need to be exceptionally good.
The other significant risk is that the horse is more a staying type and the brilliance shown here last start could be due solely to the freshness.
He is a big chance to race dour now, and not have the brilliance to pick up with the sharper types even though he is out to 1600m.
When they sprint, he could get left behind on this occasion.
Lay.
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