Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 13/6/26

This week we have identified two warm favourites at Eagle Farm who both appear to be priced on recent hype rather than the challenges they face on Saturday.

Early in the day, a highly touted import makes his Australian debut with plenty of fanfare surrounding him. However, glowing reports from the stable do not always translate into immediate success on the racetrack.

Later on the card, a well supported stayer lines up in the Brisbane Cup but may find herself vulnerable against more seasoned staying types who possess a stronger fitness base for a gruelling 3200 metre test.

 

 

Saturday Lays of the Day 13/6/26

Eagle Farm Race 1 #2 Yellow Jersey $2.10

This looks a classic case of a hype horse arriving with a big reputation from the Tony and Calvin McEvoy camp.

The stable has spoken very positively about his ability, however imported horses often face significant challenges adapting to Australian racing, particularly at their first local start.

He resumes here against several runners with race fitness on their side and that advantage should not be underestimated.

While Mark Zahra takes the ride and will be keen to deliver for connections, I doubt the priority is to leave everything on the track at this stage of the preparation.

This shapes as a race where the horse is likely to improve with the run and have bigger targets ahead.

I expect professional money to oppose him late, with a market drift a strong possibility as betting volume increases.

Avoid.

 

Eagle Farm Race 3 #7 Bella Montagna $2.40

I am happy to oppose Bella Montagna here as she attempts to tackle a demanding staying test against runners with a more suitable preparation.

Being only fourth up, she may lack the foundation required for a truly run Brisbane Cup where stamina becomes the defining factor.

The market appears to have heavily focused on her most recent performance and may be overestimating its relevance to this completely different assignment.

While she comes through a genuinely run race last start, a gruelling 3200 metre contest presents an entirely new challenge.

Several rivals arrive with stronger staying credentials and preparations specifically geared towards this type of event.

If the pressure goes on throughout the middle stages, I can see her feeling the effects late and struggling to match the hardened stayers over the final stages.

Expect support to come for others as start time approaches, with odds of $3 or better a realistic possibility.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.