Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 12/10/24

This week’s lay selections focus on two runners that appear severely over-bet, representing good risks and a clear opportunity for punters to bet around them.

At Caulfield, a first-up “hero” is forced to jump sharply in distance and is a huge chance to regress from the flashy first-up performance.

Whilst at Rosehill a popular mare has a negative jockey switch, and could race flat here after plenty of recent racing.

Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.

 

 

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Caulfield Race 5 #7 Jimmysstar $2.20

Huge win first-up over the 1100m, however he does tend to regress off a big early performance.

He would need to peak again to beat this field and he gets a few key factors against him now.

The sharp step up to 1400m is of concern and they will need to pour the work into him at home if he is to be strong here late.

Given a tricky speed map from gate 6, it is unclear where he will end up, however the most likely scenario is well back in the run and in traffic.

The Ciaron Maher/Shinn factor coupled with a big flashy first-up win all contribute to him being severely over-bet in this, and he looks an excellent risk at the skinny odds.

Lay.

 

 

Rosehill Race 10 #10 Pharari $2.20

She has been up a while now with plenty of travel between two states, where she is at a big risk of putting in a flat run soon, and is surely close to being “over the top”

The jockey switch to Zac Loyd from Mark Zahra is also a negative. While Zac has been riding well, there is no substitute for a Senior rider at Saturday metro level.

Gate 1 around Rosehill over the 1100m represents some concern for a horse that isn’t blessed with tactical early speed, where if she gets shuffled back worse than 3-back along the rail it can be difficult to extricate.

The price is pure poison, and I expect she is now on the way down and tapering off from the earlier peak performances long ago this preparation.

Avoid.

 

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.