Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 11/7/26

This week we have identified two excellent risks at Caulfield who are both faced with the challenge of the tight turning circuit, a setup that may not suit their normal racing patterns.

Early on the card, a warm favourite in the two year old event tackles a much stronger race after an impressive Maiden win at Bendigo and now faces her first look at Caulfield.

Later in the day, a Ciaron Maher runner chases a hat trick but looks awkwardly placed from the inside draw, where his racing pattern could leave him searching for clear running at a crucial stage.

 

 

Saturday Lays of the Day 11/7/26

Caulfield Race 1 #2 Angels Fury $2.30

Happy to oppose the Ciaron Maher trained filly in the opener after her visually impressive Maiden victory at Bendigo.

This is a much deeper race with several quality juveniles from leading stables making their way through the grades, and she will need to improve again to maintain her unbeaten record.

Barrier 11 creates an awkward tactical decision. The rider must either press forward early and risk working overtime, or ease back and attempt to slot in, neither of which looks ideal around Caulfield.

Apprentice Jabez Johnstone is riding well, however this is a demanding circuit and he comes up against a number of far more experienced riders who know exactly how to exploit these situations.

With the tricky draw, rise in class and a much stronger field to contend with, she looks vulnerable at the current quote.

I expect a market drift as we approach start time.

Avoid.

 

Caulfield Race 8 #10 Ten Commandments $2.40

Looks an excellent risk here as he searches for a hat trick after two impressive victories this preparation.

Both wins came at Flemington and Sandown, tracks that gave him plenty of room to build through his gears and produce his finishing burst.

Caulfield presents a completely different challenge.

From barrier one, his lack of early speed could become a major issue, with the likelihood he finds himself buried along the inside and searching for clear running at the top of the straight.

Unless everything falls into place, he may struggle to extricate into clean air in time to produce his best finish.

The tighter circuit appears far less suitable than the spacious tracks of his previous victories, and at the current price he represents poor value.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.