Kingsford-Smith Cup 2024 Horse Racing Tips 1/6/24
I Wish I Win won't run a drum
GettyTagged: John Steinmetz, Eagle Farm, Kingsford Smith Cup
Last week was complete heartbreak.
Our top tip New Endeavour who hit prices of $61 early in the market, ran such a game race finishing 2nd by 0.05L.
However, the silver lining was the healthy place price we steered punters into.
With a collect in our back pocket we now move onto the main lead up race for the elusive Stradbroke Handicap.
The 1300m weight-for-age Kingsford-Smith Cup at Group 1 level has attracted a great field headlined by I Wish I Win (IWIW).
The track is currently rated a Soft 5 and will most likely stay that way with a high chance of rain on Friday night and Saturday morning.
Given the expected track downgrade we would rather back a ripping value play.
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Kingsford-Smith Cup Tips & Best Bets from John Steinmetz
Speed Map
Tuvalu (3) should find himself with an easy lead off the back off a strong win at the ‘Bool, with only Magic Time (11) and Uncommon James (4) challenging for the lead.
It would be expected that Freedom Rally (8), Cepheus (6) and Ospienko (7) at the big odds may look to push forward to sneak into the money.
Winning hopes Think About It (2), I Wish I Win (1), In Secret (10) and Doomben 10,000 winner Bella Nipotina (9) will settle midfield.
That leaves back markers Espiona (12) and strong last start winner Antino (5) will look to peel wide and do their best work late.
Leader – Tuvalu (3)
On Pace – Magic Time (11) – Uncommon James (4)
Off Pace – Freedom Rally (8) – Cepheus (6) – Ospienko (7)
Midfield – Think About it (2) – I Wish I Win (1) – In Secret (10) – Bella Nipotina (9)
Backmarker – Espiona (12) – Antino (5)
Watch Antino win the G2 Victory Stakes at this track.
The Favourite
I Wish I Win leads the market as favourite at $3.80, followed by Magic Time ($6), Think About it ($6.50) and Bella Nipotina ($6.50).
Owners and connections will be wishing for a win from the favourite, however I think there are others to look for in this race.
I don’t doubt that IWIW is a class horse, a TJ Smith winner and a Golden Eagle Winner, however I think there are so many stronger winning hopes in this race.
I think there are so many stronger winning hopes in this race.
The chopping and changing between Luke Nolen and James McDonald must be frustrating for connections, but I think the positive sign is regular rider Nolan being booked once again.
Tips
Antino can get the job done here.
The Tony Gollan trained gelding is a Group 2 winner and a Group 1 place getter.
He is primed for this race as he heads to a Stradbroke.
Ignore his last preparation as he was shifted between Melbourne and Sydney, struggling to maintain form throughout.
He absolutely eats up ground on a wet track and is yet to be beaten on a rain affected surface.
He is also undefeated second up and judging by his last start, he is the fittest and healthy he has ever been.
Tony Gollan is hinting towards a forward of midfield showing which will set him up better against a higher class of sprinters.
At the juicy price of $11.00 and $3.50 he is the best value of the meeting.
Secondly I’m going with the already proven NSW border hopper Think About It.
This horse struggled to threaten over the Autumn carnival.
The question marks around him pushing up to the mile proved to be correct, with him failing to make ground in the Group 1 Doncaster.
He is yet to run outside of the top 3 at this distance and is a proven winner at all levels.
He’s currently moved in the market from $8 into $6.50 and I wouldn’t be surprised this being the best price punters will get.
As the Pride stable looks for a back to back Stradbroke's, this is a vital run for his fitness.
Being undefeated at this track and having an amazing first up record, I’m happy to include in all exotics and take him each way.
Watch Think About It win the 2023 Stradbroke Handicap.
The field is quite open after the two for mind, and I landed on iron mare Bella Nipotina who can run another belter here.
She has the most race experience by far out of the field, with this being start number 50.
The last start was remarkable, with a strong win to narrowly take out the 10000 over IWIW.
Bella Nipotina is always close to the money and presents as a strong place bet.
With over 20 starts in Group 1 company, I wouldn’t be surprised for her to be in the finish once more.
Finally I’m going to suggest a place bet on Uncommon James.
After a tardy jump last start it was curtains, so we can put a pen straight through that effort.
The O’Dea and Hoystead stable will be priming him for this race, and as they say, the horse never knows its odds.
Winning two from five on the wet track is a good sign also.
He has an 80% place rate and at the juicy quote of $8 I can see him sneaking into the money.
1st Antino
2nd Think About It
3rd Bella Nipotina
4th Uncommon James
Best Bets – Antino each way + boxed quinella – 2-4-5-9
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