JJ Atkins 2024 Horse Racing Tips 15/6/24

The JJ Atkins marks the culmination of Australia's Group 1 racing season for 2YOs, boasting a $1 million purse for the 1600m challenge at Eagle Farm.

This prestigious event not only showcases the country's finest young milers but also serves as a grand finale to the QLD Carnival.

With high stakes and the promise of emerging champions, the JJ Atkins is always a major talking point.

This year is no different with the James Cummings trained Godolphin colt Broadsiding headlining the market at $1.65.

While the hype is supported by his raw talent, history has shown that many 2YOs falter under the intense pressure of a Group 1.

Following Storm Boy's failure this year, it would be a bold move to back Broadsiding and there are clear reasons why he should be avoided.

I have identified two significant flaws in him that the market appears to have completely missed.

 

 

J.J. Atkins Tips & Best Bets from Luke Hovhanesian

Speed Map

This is a really interesting speed map.

There are plenty of runners here that like to land in on speed positions but preferably not lead.

This will result in a meddling run race, and it wouldn't be surprising to see many runners posted deep.

With these youngsters likely to push forward, but not force the issue, this could see race favourite Broadsiding landing 3 pairs back the fence with minimal space to move on the bend.

He is going to need an awful amount of luck to find the gaps and arguably will be forced to make his run in the worst part of the track along the rail.

The runners I have marked down for the best runs are:

• Aemelius (6)
• El Morzillo (7) &
• Barbaric Lad (8)

 

The Favourite

The star colt is aiming for his fourth consecutive win.

He previously claimed Australia's other 2YO Group 1 over a mile, the Champagne Stakes and achieved victory in the primary lead-up to this event, the Sires' Produce Stakes.

These are formlines hard to knock but I'm willing to risk him at the price.

Firstly for the aforementioned speed map and secondly for his racing pattern.

The Soft and Heavy tracks in recent weeks have allowed those off pace to have ample time to run on in the A-ground.

On a dry and firm Eagle Farm this Saturday it is going to be much harder to reel in leaders especially with a soft tempo.

If he gets held up at any stage or finds himself running home along the rail he could be in big trouble.

 

Check out the last start win of Broadsiding

 

Tips

The clear value in the race lies with El Morzillo ($18.00).

While he finished 3.7L off Broadsiding at his last race, the form guide doesn't show that he was forced into the worst part of the track when he was hitting his straps.

Craig Williams sticks which is a good indication he is going as well as ever.

He draws barrier 7 which will see him land ahead of midfield in the moving line and from there he will have options on where to run home in the straight.

I still believe there is improvement to come and we finally see him back on a good track which can be all the difference.

 

Check out El Morzillo breaking his maiden at the Sunshine Coast

 

While he has negatives against him, Broadsiding ($1.65) has to be amongst the numbers.

His raw talent is too hard to ignore and while I believe he will strike trouble, he will be the one flashing home.

 

Aemelius ($13.00) is the untapped runner of this field.

She comes through completely different formlines from her rivals and has the most scope to improve coming up to 1600m.

She was ridden upside down last start at this track and crumbled late.

From the soft draw of 6 she will sit just off the leading division and have every chance to run on.

 

After his last start effort behind Broadsiding, Zouna ($11.00) rounds out the numbers.

 

1. El Morzillo
2. Broadsiding
3. Aemelius
4. Zouna

 

For thousands more tips including free selections for today's racing, head to Australia's best racing tips market at thegreattipoff.com.