Horse Racing Tips for the VRC Oaks 2025

The Melbourne Cup Carnival kicks on into Day 3 on Thursday with Oaks Day. While many give this meeting a miss to gear up for Stakes Day on Saturday, there are plenty of reasons why it deserves attention.

One of those reasons is the Group 1 VRC Oaks for the three-year-old fillies and like the Derby, we again have a very short-priced favourite in Getta Good Feeling at $1.80.

Favourites have a superb record in this race, and she looks incredibly hard to beat.

But at $1.80, it’s not a price worth betting on.

So instead, we’ll shop around and look for value plays that can test her late.

 

 

Cody Lane’s 2025 VRC Oaks Preview  

Track Conditions

The track dried out immensely on Tuesday, going from a Soft 7 to a Soft 5, and with improving conditions leading into Thursday, we’ll be racing on a Good 4 surface at Flemington.

The rail is out 6 metres, but every runner should still get their chance.

Look for a fair racing early before the pattern starts to favour those off the fence as the day wears on.

 

Speed Map & Race Shape

Expect Nash Rawiller to take Spicy Lu (7) straight to the front and attempt an all-the-way win, just like she produced in the Ethereal last start.

Just A Journey (10) will be right there on the pace, as will fellow key chances The Pearls (12) and of course, the short-priced favourite Getta Good Feeling (4).

The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained Voting Rights (5) won’t be far from the front either, joined by After Summer (2) and Ethereum Girl (3) just behind the speed.

Two other major contenders, Classic Gem (9) and Strictly Business (13), will settle near the rear and look to charge into the race late with a strong finish.

Although several runners want to be up front, Nash Rawiller should find the lead comfortably on Spicy Lu, and as one of the country’s best front-running riders, he’ll dictate terms from there.

I am expecting a moderate tempo, which could make life tricky for the backmarkers.

 

 

Stats You Can’t Miss

• Barrier 2 has been the most successful in the last 25 years — After Summer (2) draws it this year.

• Since 2016, every Oaks winner has jumped from a different barrier.

• Favourites have won 12 of the last 23 editions, including the last four in a row.

• Outside of Lasqueti Spirit ($101 in 2016), no winner has started in double figures since 2002.

• Since 2000, 16 winners have come out of the Wakeful Stakes.

• Nine horses since 2000 have completed the Wakeful Stakes–Oaks double.

• Since 2013, 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top three in their previous start.

 

Selections & Analysis

1st – #1 Getta Good Feeling ($1.80)

She has everything in her favour here.

The filly will look to become the 10th horse in the last 25 years to complete the Wakeful Stakes–VRC Oaks double.

Her campaign has been first-class: she was outstanding flashing home to win the Edward Manifold, ran a brave third in the Caulfield Guineas against the boys and then cruised to victory in the Wakeful.

Mark Zahra takes the ride and he’s in red-hot form this carnival with six wins from twelve rides, including both the Group 1 Coolmore and VRC Derby.

She maps perfectly, will get every favour and will be hard to beat, but the $1.80 isn’t a punting price.

 

 

2nd – #3 Spicy Lu ($10.00)

Nick Olive unlocked this filly last start when she led all the way in the Ethereal.

Even with multiple on-speed runners here, expect Nash Rawiller to find the front again and control the tempo.

She’s tough and improving, and her 2000m win showed she can handle a true staying test.

Nash is a master at rating horses in front and while Spicy Lu has her quirks, she produced her best when rolling along last start.

She’ll take some catching again and is worth a bet at double figures.

 

3rd – #7 Strictly Business ($10.00)

The wildcard of the field.

With only three runs under her belt, Strictly Business is open to massive improvement and looks to have plenty of upside.

Her run in the Wakeful was excellent, finishing second and matching the favourite stride for stride through the line.

She’s progressive and one of the few that could genuinely jump a few levels here.

A knockout chance and I’ll also be having a small bet on her.

 

4th – #2 The Pearls ($8.50)

While the Spring Champion Stakes hasn’t produced many Oaks winners (just one in the last 25 years), the form out of this year’s edition has been elite.

If Attica or Shangri La Boy were in this race, they’d be fighting for favouritism so this Chris Waller-trained filly deserves respect.

She’s tough, genuine and looks primed to run the trip out strongly.

Expect her to be right around the finish.

 

Cody’s Take

The favourite deserves to be odds-on but this race often rewards fillies who take the next step at the right time.

Spicy Lu and Strictly Business are both improving and could make Getta Good Feeling work for it.

I’ll be having small each-way plays on those two and saving on the favourite.

 

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