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Horse Racing Tips for The Victoria Derby 2024

A new King to be crowned

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Tagged: Neil Evans, Victoria Derby

The time-honoured staying classic for three-year-olds promises an intriguing contest with diverse form lines converging.

Although the early favourite comes off a tough win in last week’s Randwick Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes, my preference leans towards a runner out of the Group 2 Vase in Melbourne.

With plenty of on-speed runners in the field we’re likely to see a genuine tempo, setting up an ideal opportunity for a swooper to come from off the speed and take the prize.

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The Victoria Derby 2024 Tips and Best Bets

Track Conditions

Expected Condition: Good 4
Rail Position: True
Pattern: By the time we reach the Derby an off-speed pattern may develop potentially benefiting those coming from behind.

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The Speed Map

The early positioning will be crucial, as several runners are vying for prominent spots.

El Castello, aiming for a fifth consecutive win, will be hunting across to settle just off the lead.

Group 2 Vase winner Red Aces should find a nice trail a few lengths back, joined by Keeneland, Kingofwallstreet, and outsider Oxford Blue, all looking to settle forward.

Tenbury Wells may attempt to lead or sit outside the likely pace setter, Hot Too Go, who has been ultra-consistent recently.

The midfield group is expected to include Goldrush Guru, Saint Emilion, and China Sea, while King Of Thunder and Peru sit further back but in prime position along the rail.

The Favourite

El Castello ($3.70) is as genuine and determined as they come.

However, he must be under the odds stepping up 500m in the space of seven days and being drawn off the track.

El Castello

Neil's Best Bet

Drawn to get the cheap run inside with all the cover in the world, King Of Thunder ($7.50) emerges as my stand-out value runner.

He's searching for the longer classic trip now, and you had to like how he kept surging and hitting the line from well off the speed in the Group 2 Vase at The Valley after chasing wide from the 650m.

He keeps improving as the distances have risen and with J-Mac aboard, look out if he gets any clear running from the 500m.

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The Dangers

Emerging Dundeel colt Red Aces ($7.00) finds an ideal trail and is terrific value as well.

Can't dismiss El Castello, but I would want at least $5.00, far more than the $3.70 originally served up.

Politely Dun ($15.00) will settle in the back third, but he's hard fit and desperate for a longer trip, and there's a sense of timing about his campaign at bigger odds.