Horse Racing Tips for the Melbourne Cup 2023

You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2023 Melbourne Cup, but the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning.

Never one to beat around the bush, Mick Gannon gives us his brutally honest assessment of your horse's chance in the big race.

 

 

 

1. GOLD TRIP (2)

J: J McDonald / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace /  58.5kg 

Last year's champ is back for a repeat performance carrying the top weight.

Gold Trip will be strutting his stuff after winning the Turnbull Stakes and running very well in the Cox Plate.

Fun fact: the last three Aussie Cup winners have all cut their teeth in the Turnbull.

Could this be déjà vu?

Can go back-to-back, however weight stops trains.

Current Odds: $6.50

 

 

 

2. ALENQUER (9)

J: D Oliver / T: Michael Moroney / 56.5kg

It’s a shame to see D Oliver aboard this galloper.

The last thing any racing fan wanted to see is one of the greats run last in his final Cup ride.

Will struggle to beat the ambulance home.

Current Odds: $61.00

 

3. WITHOUT A FIGHT (16)

J: Mark Zahra / T: M & S Freedman / 56.5kg

The Caulfield Cup winner in fine style.

Jockey Mark Zahra must've flipped a coin to choose between Without A Fight and Gold Trip.

It's like choosing between pizza and burgers - both winners in their own right!

Could easily blow them away!

Current Odds: $6.00

 

4. BREAKUP (18)

J: K Matsuyama / T: Tatsuya Yoshioka / 55.5kg

Breakup's first outing in the Caulfield Cup was like a first date gone wrong.

But don't count him out just yet - second-up is where Breakup can make amends.

Big place chance hope.

Current Odds: $16.00

 

5. VAUBAN (3)

J: Ryan Moore / T: William Mullins / 55kg
 
Vauban took Royal Ascot by storm with a 7.5L win.

But, alas, August is like ancient history for Aussie racing fans.

Will this hurdler find his groove in Australia?

Of course he can. As brutal as it sounds, even their hurdlers are better than our stayers.

Will give it a shake but too short for me.

Current Odds: $4.20

 

6. SOULCOMBE (4)

J: J Moreira / T: Chris Waller / 53.5kg

Soulcombe produced a cracking run in the Turnbull, only to hit a speed bump at Caulfield.

With a liking for Flemington and the Magic Man to ride, he’s hard to knock.

Let's just hope he doesn't miss the start this time!

Willing to risk, but can run a place.

Current Odds: $10.00

 

 

7. ABSURDE (8)

J: Zac Puton / T: William Mullins / 53kg
 
Ebor Handicap victor Absurde will relish the dry track.

Seven starts, seven top 2 finishes - talk about consistency!

The money has come and for good reason.

He’ll give a huge sight!

Current Odds: $11.00

 

8. RIGHT YOU ARE (15)

 J: John Allen / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / 53kg

Right You Are showed some real guts at Caulfield, riding a hot tempo.

Can run top 10 with some luck.

Current Odds: $61.00

 

9. VOW AND DECLARE (19)

J: W Egan / T: Danny O'Brien / 53kg
 
Glory days! The Cup winner of 2019 back for another crack.

I doubt The Moonee Valley Gold Cup is the right form-line.

It would be some feat to win his second Cup 4 years on and he’s drawn horribly.

I doubt he’ll run top 4 from that gate.

Current Odds: $26.00

 

10. CLEVELAND (23)

J: M Dee / T: Kris Lees / 52kg
 
When Lloyd Williams is in the house, you know it's time to pay attention.

Cleveland, fresh off a Moonee Valley Gold Cup win, could be the dark horse of the day.

Those famous Williams colours have seen their fair share of Cups. Could this be the next chapter in the legend?

Cute narrative though.

I'll walk home from Flemington if this guy wins!

Current Odds: $41.00

 

11. ASHRUN (11)

J: K McEvoy / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / 51.5kg
 
Ashrun's been on a bit of a hiatus, but it's like he never left.

After a three-year break, he ran very well in the Geelong Cup.

With a weight drop and a jockey with 3 Cup wins under his belt, Ashrun might just be the dark horse we've all been waiting for!

Must include in all exotics.

Current Odds: $41.00

 

12. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (12)

J: D Stackhouse / T: Phillip Stokes / 51.5kg
 
In the words of Gabriella Cilimi – “nothing sweet about me”

Current Odds: $101.00

 

13. OKITA SOUSHI (20)

J: Dylan Gibbons / T: Joseph O'Brien / 51.5kg
 
Okita Soushi might have been flogged at Caulfield, but let's not count him out just yet.

He’s a winner over 3200m which will hold him in good stead.

Can easily run top 10.

Current Odds: $101.00

 

14. SHERAZ (22)

J: Beau Mertens / T: Chris Waller / 51.5kg
 
Sheraz, better paired with lamb, not so much the first Tuesday in November.

Current Odds: $151.00

 

15. LASTOTCHKA (21)

J: Craig Williams / T: M Price & M Kent / 51kg
 
Her best form is on wet tracks, making it hard to back her with confidence.

She won a French Group 3, but the form hasn’t stacked up since.

Couldn’t possibly entertain!

Current Odds: $21.00

 

16. MAGICAL LAGOON (7)

J: R Du Plessis / T: C Waller / 51kg
 
Will roll forward and give a sight for 2400m, before falling back into the lap of a favoured runner and likely making it very hard for those along the rail. 

Wouldn't back it with your money!

Current Odds: $151.00

 

17. MILATARY MISSION (5)

J: Rachel King / T: G Waterhouse & A Bott / 51kg
 
Military Mission commands respect with a light weight.

With wins in the G3 Newcastle Gold Cup and G2 Herbert Power, this horse is no stranger to the winner's circle this prep.

But this is different gravy.

Can see him running top 10.

Current Odds: $26.00

 

18. SERPENTINE (1)

J: Jye McNeil / T: G Waterhouse & A Bott / 51kg
 
Jye McNeil will be out to make a statement here.

He drops 7kgs, sits on speed and will be given every possible.

With Waterhouse/Bott training and Lloyd Williams as the proud owner, it wouldn’t surprise to see Jye McNeil make a mid-race move and turn this into a true staying test.

The knock-out hope!

Current Odds: $41.00

 

19. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE (6)

J: C Newitt / T: Liam Howley / 51kg
 
Full credit to Liam Howley for making the Melbourne Cup.

Was 4.6L off them in the Geelong Cup and would need to improve at least 10L to win.

Pass.

Current Odds: $151.00

 

20. MORE FELONS (24)

J: Jamie Kah / T: C Waller / 50.5kg
 
More Felons flew home in the Geelong Cup.

He’s undefeated second-up and is under the guidance of grand-final specialist Chris Waller.

Over the odds.

Current Odds: $20

 

21. FUTURE HISTORY (13)

J: H Doyle / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / 50kg
 
This bloke won The Bart Cummings and ran well in the Moonee Valley Cup

Looks a length or two off the more favoured runners, but could improve further out to the 3200m.

Not the worst!

Current Odds: $20.00

 

22. INTERPRETATION (17)

J: Teo Nugent / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / 50kg

Interpretation fell in when winning the Bendigo Cup.

Couldn’t possibly entertain!

Current Odds: $101.00

 

23. KALAPOUR (14)

J: Zac Llloyd / T: K Lees / 50kg
 
Was the last horse to snag a ticket to the Cup, after winning The Archer at Flemington on Derby Day.

He made his own luck on Saturday, but this is much harder now.

Hard Pass!

Current Odds: $41.00

 

24. TRUE MARVEL (10)

J: Ben Thompson / T: Matthew Smith / 50kg
 
True Marvel is a 3200m specialist, but typically in less challenging contests.

Highly unlikely to steal the show here.

I’ll eat my hat if he runs top 5.

Current Odds: $151.00

 

Mick Gannon's Melbourne Cup Tips

1st Without A Fight

2nd Absurde

3rd Breakup

4th Vauban

 

There are loads of Melbourne Cup Tips from Pro Punters and Media Experts at theGreatTipOff.com.