Horse Racing Tips for Randwick Guineas 2024

Yes he has to beat a very smart one at set weights, but there's so much upside to Tom Kitten after two runs back, it's simply not funny.

The Harry Angel colt who won the Group 1 Champion Stakes over 2000m last spring has probably had more checkered runs and bad luck in 12 starts than most horses cop in 50.

Yet despite how it seems on paper, you cannot understate his two efforts so far this prep, now getting to the mile third-up.

After doing his best work late in the Group 3 Eskimo Prince over 1200m, he was afforded a tough and ordinary passage in the Group 2 Hobartville (1400m).

He settled much further back than he should have and didn't get the cleanest run over the final 500m.

 

 

I love the draw for Tom Kitten despite the speed not looking ideal for a backmarker and the possibility that he may need one more run. The gate allows him to tuck in one-off the fence about four or five pairs back on settling.

He needs something to go up and challenge the speed from the 700m, which hasn't happend in his last few starts. That will give him clear air before the turn to enable him to let rip down the middle of the track.

It is also worth remembering, that his 33 percent winning strike rate from 12 starts has been primarily built around dry track form.

Militarize is the clear benchmark, given he was a Group 1 Golden Rose winner in the spring, and did tackle the Apollo Stakes behind Fangirl when resuming three weeks ago.

But he's under the odds around even money and so too is the smart Celestial Legend ($4.50), drawn off the track third-up.

 

 

Randwick Race 8 - Randwick Guineas (Group 1, 1600m)

Track Conditions

The rail is pushed out 3m from the true position where it was last Saturday.

Given there was an advantage a few "lanes" away from the inside early and ultimately trending slowly wider as the day wore on, I expect something similar this Saturday.

With predominantly dry weather in the 48 hours leading-up to race day, expect the firm and better ground just off the fence again, and gradually edging wider as the meeting unfolds.

Look for runners settling with cover a length or two off speed, and ideally edging three or four out past the 300m to 350m.

This should be the general trend before those from further back get more into the action across the latter races.

 

The Speed Map

I expect roughie Les Vampires to roll forward from a low draw and lead.

Fukubana drawn right alongside, and rank outsider Cosmic Lad from a middle barrier will both sit behind him.

That leaves Ceolwulf drawn the fence, and Ganbare in the next pair, along with Encap who comes across from wider out.

Nestled back with cover is Militarize, possibly with Celestial Legend to his outside, and importantly Tom Kitten from a wide gate sitting in the second half on the latter's tail.

 

 

The Favourite

On power and class alone, Militarize must be the one to beat second-up, but you can leave me out of the early $2.00!

Yes, it's not a top-notch Guineas field, but there's enough closing quality to suggest around $2.60 is more the favourite's mark.

He draws to find a one-off trail back in the field, and he's already an impressive second-up winner, but he's vulnerable at the short price on firm ground.

In soft or heavy going he's every bit of that early quote, maybe even odds-on.

However, when the surface is rated Good, a couple of others are well over the mark on that basis.

 

Neil's Best Bet

At the early value around $8.00, I'm content to bore into Tom Kitten both ways, and save on the Quinella with Militarize.

Encap third-up around $10.00 is well over the odds.

 

Neil's Top Four

1. TOM KITTEN
2. Militarize
3. Encap
4. Celestial Legend

 

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